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GERB wins the majority of the votes of the people, but can the closures, the delay in vaccination and the absence of Borissov in the big television debates weaken the leadership of the party?
Days before the parliamentary elections, everyone is wondering if the result has been announced, if we expect surprises and what kind of government awaits us, reports novini.bg.
All opinion polls save five parties in the next parliament and two on the brink of the abyss. However, it appears that the next National Assembly will be made up of a total of seven parties and coalitions.
The main agencies determine the first place for GERB-UDF, followed by the centenary – BSP. Most of the experts and studies are in dispute about the third place in the vote: whether Slavi Trifonov’s “There are such people” party will win more votes or the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF).
In fifth place, according to most polls, is democratic Bulgaria, followed by “on the brink” of IMRO and “Get up! Get out!”
The vote for the MRF always hides surprises, and the votes exceed the data of opinion polls.
Part of this phenomenon is due to the fact that surveys by sociological agencies do not include voices from abroad. Trifonov’s party is shaping up to be a strong and unpredictable player in the next parliament.
The number of parties that have joined will not facilitate the choice to form a government.
Activity
Almost 54% was turnout in the last parliamentary elections, or about 3,700,000 Bulgarians who voted.
Expectations for April 4 are 37-40% activity or almost 2,800,000 Bulgarians at the polls.
Around 3,000,000 voters is considered normal turnout and fewer than 2.2 million are considered extremely low.
It would be difficult for anyone to predict turnout on April 4, as we have no precedent in history to compare, namely a vote during a pandemic.
Coronavirus infection can play a leading role in low voter turnout, and another factor would be voter fatigue or predictability of elections.
According to Trend, 45% of Bulgarians will definitely vote, 22% doubt. According to the agency, 23% of Bulgarians will definitely not vote and 10% cannot judge.
The Afis agency estimates that between 2.5 and 2.7 million Bulgarians will exercise their right to vote on Sunday.
What do the parties offer?
GERB proposes to maintain stable economic development, health, education, infrastructure, investment in innovation and research and development, increasing revenues.
The BSP’s leftist agenda includes increasing pensions, economic growth, and increasing wages and investment.
The MRF will fight poverty by more investment, and among its top priorities is the transition to a “green economy.”
“There are people like this”, he will want to achieve the possibility of remote electronic voting in elections and referendums, citizen participation in the government, a new balanced policy on energy and natural gas, judicial reform.
The “democratic Bulgaria” will fight for modernization, electronic government and digitization, conservation of natural resources, technological and energy transition, judicial reform.
In its partisan promises, the IMRO promised higher salaries and pensions, the preservation of family and traditions, a strong military and the fight against the “Green Deal.” Unsurprisingly, the Patriots are also betting on the North Macedonia issue.
“Get up! Get out!” The main priorities are increasing income with a minimum wage of BGN 1,250, updating pensions, free kindergartens and nurseries. Maya Manolova promised judicial reform and a review of past administrations.
Naturally, the main part of the electoral programs overlaps. The main goal of the next government should be to manage the health crisis and the economy after the pandemic.
Opportunities and mistakes
We witnessed an unusual campaign, a lack of program conflict that appeared very late in the electoral battles anyway.
Nor is there such an important public leadership debate between GERB leader Boyko Borisov and first in BSP Cornelia Ninova, which practically did not take place throughout the campaign.
The coronavirus, the measures, the protests and the political scandals also contributed to the resentment of the Bulgarians.
Are we expecting surprises?
Despite the anti-government protests in the summer, GERB retains its drastic leadership and first place. Strong positions are due in part to disintegration and intertwined opposition.
GERB wins the majority of the votes of the people, but can the closures, the delay in vaccination and the absence of Borissov in the big television debates weaken the leadership of the party?
The BSP has relaunched its campaign around the mistakes of its opponents, rather than what the opposition has done in recent years.
The parties that relied on what was reported during the last legislature were mainly GERB and VMRO, as part of the ruling majority, which proposed and made the most changes.
Slavi Trifonov appears as the alternative to “I do not support anyone”, that is, the new and anti-systemic party. “There is such a people” is expected to receive votes from Bulgarians, who traditionally do not vote.
The Movement for Rights and Freedoms has put young candidates and fresh faces on its list, relying on its hard-line electorate and the renewal request of its representatives.
“Democratic Bulgaria” stole the vote from young people seeking an immediate change in the status quo, as well as from some of the participants / supporters of the summer 2020 protests. DB also benefits from strong support from the voters of the urban right.
IMRO’s standalone appearance was a mistake, and its percentages would be much stronger in unification with NFSB, VOLIA, and KOD.
The coalitions of these parties would unite the patriotic and right-wing vote that now appears to be at a crossroads. The IMROs are successfully maneuvering on the RS Macedonia issue, and increased revenue for the military (represented by Krassimir Karakachanov as Defense Minister) could win them additional votes.
To cross the electoral threshold, Maya Manolova’s party must mobilize the protest vote. “Get up! Get out!” it attracts some of the left-wing votes, as well as splits from the Bulgarian Socialist Party.
The 2020 “protest parties” are led by Slavi Trifonov and Maya Manolova.
What will the government be in the next 4 years and what are the possible coalitions?
The coalition between GERB and VMRO is the most likely, but insufficient to form a government or the 121 necessary deputies.
According to the parties, the situation is as follows: no party wants to form a coalition with the MRF and vice versa: Slavi Trifonov does not want to form a coalition with anyone. Thus, the two parties emerge as a balancer and perhaps a key partner in important decisions in the next parliament.
At the moment, two things are clear: you cannot form a government without a coalition with GERB or BSP, and that the next cabinet will be made up of a tripartite majority.
The coalition against GERB + VMRO and “There are such people” seems the most possible.
If the Slavi Trifonov “phenomenon” does not occur in the elections, then a possible GERB coalition partner will be “Democratic Bulgaria”.
The second option is to join the BSP and “Get up! Get out!” de Manolova with the conditional support of “There is such a people” and “Democratic Bulgaria”.
The BSP is a systemic opposition, with which, however, formations and governance seem impossible.
The probability of a provisional government is not high either.
IMRO will be a natural partner of GERB and an important support in the formation of the majority.
The MRF will lose the role of sole balancer and the BSP will lose the role of the sole opposition.
The possibility of a coalition between GERB and BSP also remains impossible.
It is possible that the mandate will be given to DB or Slavi Trifonov’s party, in the face of which, however, stronger players will have an advantage.
Earthquakes, a clash for third place and surprises hide the next elections.
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