How the EU saved Bulgaria from buying the Russian vaccine – Analysis

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Planning is the aerobatics of process management, personal or public. Anyone can more or less cope with fire fighting by relying on their self-preservation instincts and pouring a bucket of water over the flames first. Much more is required to forecast your needs to avoid crises or get rid of the least damage.

Bulgaria has once again faced this reality with its unfortunate orders for vaccines, which have left it at the end of Europe with the only vaccine recognized as a safe remedy against COVID-19. The delay is condemning her to a long and painful recovery, which appears not only to be very costly for the economy, but is also associated with hundreds of lives, some of which could be saved.

Prioritize from the easy

It has already been said that the priority groups selected by the government have slowed down the vaccination campaign and started with the easiest, not the most necessary. It was easier for the state to organize hospital doctors, school teachers, district police, and mink keepers on farms than to find ways to connect with 1.8 million retirees, most of whom are not. they have another means of communication other than the telephone. places or has difficulty moving. For this reason, the authorities have chosen to focus on the youngest and most enterprising people, those who have jobs and could be more easily covered by vaccination campaigns. Vaccination centers were opened to them, since in Europe from the beginning they worked for the elderly. This condemned the most vulnerable to wait, regardless of the risks. Let’s not forget that the average age of those killed by COVID-19 in Bulgaria is 72 years.

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The loneliness of Bulgaria’s choice of priorities was made clear this week, when, together with other EU countries, Bulgaria had to announce how far it has come in achieving the European target of vaccinating 80% of people over 80 years before March 31st. In the three months of the campaign, 5.1% of Bulgarians over 80 years of age have been immunized in this group. According to this indicator, Bulgaria is the only European country with single digit success. In 26th place ahead is Latvia, which has covered 17.4% of its 80-year-old citizens, and the European champions Malta (95.3%) and Ireland (94.1%) are not even seen with binoculars from Sofia.

Adverse vaccines

Bulgaria also made a poor choice of vaccines, which it ordered from contracts concluded by the European Commission, betting more than half of its doses on just two of seven potential manufacturers. The Bulgarian government darling, Sanofi, was unable to make a vaccine, so it ordered 4.6 million doses that were rendered unusable. AstraZeneca, to which the Bulgarian authorities paid 4.5 million doses, faced its own unrealistic expectations about its capabilities. The company was forced to cut its supplies to Europe by two-thirds, which proved problematic, especially for Bulgaria and Latvia, which had relied heavily on the British-Swedish vaccine.

Could the Bulgarian government have foreseen the problems with the preferred producers? Probably not quite, because Sanofi is a world-renowned vaccine manufacturer with high expectations, and AstraZeneca was the first to go through clinical trials.

However, the European Commission played a crucial role in Bulgaria still buying 2 million vaccines from Johnson & Johnson, after initially refusing to participate in the contract.

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And failed orders

In this case, the mistakes could have been largely avoided if the authorities had simply followed the principles of good governance, as well as the advice of the European Commission. That is, to ensure that all vaccines are offered on an equal footing, so that if some of them are ahead of others or have problems with an approved vaccine, they have enough freedom to continue vaccinating until the others reach marketing authorization. . Such an approach would not stop vaccination while waiting for AstraZeneca vaccine safety data in late March, as happened after authorities in Sofia suspended vaccines for six days with the only vaccine they used for mass immunization of the population. .

The Bulgarian government approaches the vaccine order differently from other European countries, underestimating the risk of a failed vaccine development. It always exists when it comes to buying them green, as the European Commission did to reserve quantities before the enormous global demand. Nor does it appear that sufficient attention is paid to the different schedules and the willingness of individual manufacturers to enter the market with the presumption that they will be available early enough to carry out national vaccination at hitherto unknown levels.

Thus, when the vaccination campaign began in Europe, Bulgaria had by 2021 only 1 million doses of vaccines from BioNTech / Pfizer, 500,000 from Moderna, enough for 750,000 people and the promise of the European regulator to approve a third vaccine. AstraZeneca received the green light only in February and it was clear from the beginning that the company will not be able to fulfill its contracts more than 40%. Thus, for the first quarter it delivered only 29.7 million of the 90 million doses agreed with the EU, and for the second quarter it promised only 70 of the 160 million according to its contract with the European Commission.

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Europe’s three saves

Given the way of dealing with the crisis in areas where individual countries relied mainly on themselves and then on the EU, it is unlikely that Bulgaria would be able to find vaccines on its own. This fact is recognized even by the Bulgarian government.

Salvation I

The decision on joint procurement on behalf of the EU was a lifesaver for Bulgaria. They allowed the authorities to guarantee the vaccines. Immunizations in Bulgaria started earlier than those in Japan and Australia, solely because it was able to take advantage of common European acquisitions. But due to poor planning of campaigns and supplies, six months after the adoption of the national vaccination strategy, it is still unknown who is included in the mysterious third group of vaccination, and the start of immunization of the last group has been postponed. most vulnerable. times and rulers no longer even answer questions about when they will proceed.

Salvation II

The wrong choice of vaccines marked a deficit in the first trimester. That’s why the second European bailout, in the form of additional contracts with manufacturers Pfizer and Moderna earlier in the year, was welcomed. Thanks to them, the government was able to partially correct poor supply planning by ordering another 2.9 million from the first vaccine and 460,000 from the second vaccine. This gave the authorities reason to claim that they already have a balanced mix between mRNA, vector vaccines and antigens, which was not the case before.

But since the additional contracts are valid after the completion of the first one, this did not solve all the problems. Faced with the permanent opportunity to launch a broader campaign, the government embarked on an Austrian initiative against the distribution of vaccines. The European Commission renegotiated 10 million BioNTech / Pfizer pre-produced vaccines, with delivery dates in the second rather than the third quarter.

The attempt failed mainly because Austria withdrew on its own initiative after it became clear that other European countries were reluctant to increase their doses, as the vaccination process in Austria ranked it among the most successful countries, not among the laggards that had attracted.

Salvation III

The decision of the European leaders, taken on March 26, the last in vaccination to receive help through additional doses, was an exceptional gift for the Bulgarian government. It happened, even though only a week earlier he had harshly criticized Europe for the unfair distribution of vaccines. This was done despite the fact that representatives of the Bulgarian government were personally involved in creating the mechanism by which the doses were divided.

If it had maintained its thesis of a fair distribution according to its population, today Bulgaria would have had to settle for the 155,000 of the first doses in proportion to what was due. Once again, Europe offered the Bulgarian government a second chance by deciding to reserve 1/3 of the 10 million doses for five countries that are objectively at the bottom of the European vaccination rankings (Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia, Latvia and Estonia). Thus, the 19 European countries, which voluntarily agreed to take 1/3 less to have more for the latter, saved Bulgaria for the third time. Sofia will receive 1.2 million doses instead of 155,000, almost 8 times more than she deserves.

Three of Sofia’s allies for the distribution of vaccines have renounced solidarity. Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovenia have chosen not to share with the laggards, keeping to themselves the vaccine quotas to which they are entitled.

Sofia, for her part, tacitly abandoned her battle for a fair distribution of vaccines in proportion to the population and agreed to receive an unfair advantage. It will make it possible to correct government errors related to the choice of vaccines and the ordered number of them, as well as for more Bulgarians to receive protection against the coronavirus.

The third European salvation will allow Bulgaria not to spend money on the purchase of vaccines from non-European manufacturers, which some opposition parties are calling for.

With a delivery period between April and June of the additional doses and a three-fold increase in the quantities under the contracts with the four authorized products in the second quarter, Bulgaria will be able to significantly accelerate the rate of vaccination. The amounts planned for the second half of the year will be more than enough to successfully complete the vaccination campaign and possibly even to administer a third dose against the new variants of the coronavirus.

As the vaccines from Russian and Chinese manufacturers will not receive a European license before June, and deliveries will be able to start at the earliest in early summer, they will not be required for the Bulgarian implementation of the European target. 70% vaccinated as of September.

Even with AstraZeneca’s continuing production difficulties, Bulgaria will have the necessary quantities of vaccines and stable supplies at its disposal. Will you be able to put them on? This is a matter of national competence, in which Europe cannot help showing how to do it. Or will you have to intervene here as well?

The comment is from Yovka Dimitrova’s personal blog.