The mathematician pointed out the main distributors of COVID-19 at the moment – Diseases

There is a hidden COVID-19 pandemic in children and in the tourism industry, Ch. CA mathematician Dr. Lachezar Tomov announced. Thus, it explains the majority of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 at this time, in the context of less active cases, compared to past peaks.

Tomov clarified that by “tourism” he refers to visits to hotels. “Hotels are the main source of infection. There, however, there is no proof, there is nothing to say, there are no statistics. What we can say is that for the increased morbidity in the southwestern part of Bulgaria, remember that there was a great growth in nature. We cannot state this categorically, “said Dr. Tomov, writes Fakti bg.

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“However, we have categorical data for schools and their function. Not only for the infected children, but also for the mechanism by which the infection occurs. Done e, flashover uchilishtata cvarzvat in poctoyanna, don’t worry, visiting inache razdeleni chacti de obshtectvoto, Fact e tova, flashover in nachalnite uchilishta nyama macki, nyama merki, charter razlika from the to your partner uchilishta ce vzimatzi ranna NO, NO ce nocyat macki, detsata do not distance themselves. Children get infected with the British version with very successful. We know it from many countries, in which detailed analyzes are carried out, such as Germany, for example, and it is active, “promised Lachezar Tomov.

“Children are infected with the British will for sure. It was just a hypothesis that they were not infected with the virus before. There is no way to know this, because we did not have an antibody test. In England, for example, they did a test for antibodies in children and they saw that 70% of them were asymptomatic. It turned out that a small percentage of the children tested positive during the test, but it was clear that a large number of them were infected, “he promised.

“Clusters can be formed in primary schools and kindergartens. Dori ea priemem, flashover detsata zarazyavat roditelite ci znachitelno orientation in ryadko, otkolkoto roditelite zarazyavat detsata ci, policies and practices in obrazuvaneto na Reduction A klacter in detcka gradina or in schools – at 20-30 detsa, tovane na lead not roditeli a predavane in other families. When children connect in large groups without measures, they are in fact more likely to become infected, which has not been proven, and the virus is transmitted with However, this is all illegal, after which it does not go through quarantine, after which the parents go to work with a sick child, “he said.

“In areas where students go home, this will be reflected from 1 week to 10 days. The point is that we still have other influences. The influence of restaurants begins to increase, due to the way they were treated – without measures and overcrowding. It’s hard to say which one will prevail, “Tomov promised, adding,” A week after the return of students online through the event, the process has begun. It was still growing, but the curve was no longer protruding, but was slowing down. Then it will be reflected. We cannot say what effect the online training will have, because firstly, the virus is more contagious, secondly, at the same time, we have other factors. The return of students online will be reflected, but I don’t know if we will see it in the graph because the other factors are working in the opposite direction. “

“It is important that the British version of the virus, if it follows the logic in Denmark and Germany, and I see no reason to follow a different logic, a different dynamic, be with us.” It has reached a distribution level of 60-70%, it has not reached 90%. This is not a flu with an incubation period of two days, it is a virus with an incubation period of 7 to 10 days. Therefore, the spread of the coronavirus is slower, it does not spread like the flu, ”said Tomov.

As a result, the conversation focused on the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in our country.

Dr. Lachezar Tomov reported a 2.5 times higher hospitalization rate, which he promised with two factors: “One factor is the virus itself. In this case, between 30 and 50% more patients are hospitalized. The second factor is precisely this hidden pandemic. The percentage of positive things is less than the percentage. However, hospitals fill two and a half times faster, which cannot be explained by the British virus alone. This means that there is a hidden pandemic that does not occur at all. There are areas where there is no action. One is kindergarten and primary schools, the other is the tourism business, for which we have no direct data. There we are speaking entirely of the hypothesis, but of a basic hypothesis. “

“The hidden pandemic is true. Parts of the population do not compete, neither geographically nor by age,” he was categorical. When asked whether stopping vaccination could play a role in increasing the disease, Dr. Tomov responded: “Exceptional. This unnecessary precaution sends signals to antiquities that there is something where there is nothing. The incidence of complications does not is higher in vaccinated people than in unvaccinated people. This is in the area of ​​noise, not in the data. This unnecessary precaution, rather than preserving the reputation of vaccines, actually hurts them. Delaying vaccination at this rate is quite dangerous. At the moment, this is one of our weapons to reduce mortality. You have always received a dose if you did not get infected during the vaccination and you did not get infected the following week, you are a person who goes off the list. dose, of which even one vaccine, is enough so that no one dies. Mortality could be greatly reduced by continuing to vaccinate. In my opinion, this stop in many countries is not justified. E n medicine there is a principle “the first does not hurt”, a principle that, if it is always applied in the same way, sometimes it hurts a lot. This is a situation where caution is harmful, useless. “

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“Until a large percentage of the population is vaccinated, it is very difficult to stop the virus. It is possible that in Bulgaria as in all the countries that remain an uncontrollable epidemic, the explosive spread of the virus will give rise to new ones. We can continue to create problems for ourselves and create problems for Europe. The possibility is not great, but it exists: to create our own variant, ours will be a virus. It is difficult to say when the pandemic will end. “Without vaccination and without active measures to stop the spread, this will be very difficult,” he added.

“The effect of the spread of the British strain is greatly underestimated. Yes, Angelov handled the situation with complete shutdown, but the decline was slower than before. The more contagious the virus, the more difficult the measures. that Bulgaria is blessed from the point of view that it is misdirected, it is still a day to close absolutely everything and everything else. If we are delayed by a week or two, this advancement can be repeated many times, “commented Dr. Tomov.

According to Lachezar Tomov, measures are needed to reduce the number of coronavirus patients. These measures can be even gentler: the children do not attend the current school and kindergartens, the work of the institution is suspended, and the work is finished.

“NO Vaprocat e in zatvaryaneto, vaprocat e, flashover balgarckata ctrana NO ucpya ea kompencira dobre ikonomichecki, ea predlozhi alternativi, a camite cobctvenitsi na biznec ca in nyakakvo otritsanie, flashover imaick to bo cituats the discipline. the usual way, so the risk is minimal. The stores were overcrowded. All closures happen because we have no discipline, not because they are absolutely inevitable. This is also the case in Germany and England. In Singapore, Korea, Japan, Taiwan , they managed with minimal closures, because they all had a cat, they all kept their distance, they did not close, they closed too much. And in Germany, 60% of people work from the office, not from home. And there were children without cats in the school. The measures are not applied enough and therefore everything closes. If there was discipline, it would not be necessary or it would be for a much shorter period. “

“Those who need hospitalization will continue to grow,” Dr. Tomov said at the end of the conversation. “It’s just that there will be nowhere for patients to be admitted. There are currently 300 people hospitalized per day and this will continue to grow. Even in the most positive scenario, there will still be five days of continuous growth in hospitalization and about two weeks of decrease but continuous. We can easily go from 10 to 12 thousand people hospitalized, as long as there is a place for them to be hospitalized, “he said.