Scientists with 3 pandemic scenarios

Pandemic Ends June 2022 Without Vaccination, Optimistic Option Predicts

In the period from March 5 to April 23 of this year, active cases of COVID-19 in the country will gradually increase, but this will also depend on the vaccination process. This was predicted by Professor Marusia Bozhkova from the Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics of the University of Sofia “St. Kliment Ohridski”, presenting a mathematical model for the spread of the coronavirus. According to the number of new cases with COVID-19, there are three scenarios for the development of the pandemic in our country: basic, pessimistic and optimistic, which will depend on the preventive measures taken, said Professor Bozhkova.

There are three possible scenarios for Easter and we are going up if the measures are relaxed, if the measures are as they are now, we can expect new cases from 2000 to a little more than 3000. If the measures tighten, but also with the result the vaccination, which is being done at the moment, and which has already been done, we expect attenuation, but not elimination of this process at this time, Professor Bozhkova commented.

Professor Ognyan Kunchev from the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences presented long-term forecasting models for the development of the coronavirus pandemic in Bulgaria, with and without vaccination. In the mathematical model, without vaccination and according to the number of cases in intensive care units, the optimistic scenario is that the duration of the epidemic will be until June 2022, predicts Professor Kunchev. He commented that without the use of vaccines there will not be a more recent end to the pandemic, but it will not be until 2024, and its end “will occur in May-June 2022.” Professor Kunchev suggested that in our country “at the end of the epidemic the dead will be up to 57,000 people, or about 50,000 people.” It is estimated that so far in our country about 1 million people have “encountered” the coronavirus, and the death toll is approximately 10,500, said the scientist. Another is the scenario for the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in our country during the vaccination of the population, explained Prof. Ognyan Kunchev. He predicted that if we assume 120,000 people get vaccinated every month, we have 1,100 intensive care units and we shut down for about 20-30 days, the death toll will be about 43,000, again a pessimistic forecast, but all “something” will. ends on December 15 this year. “This estimated estimate of the expected deaths of 43,000 people from the coronavirus (including 10,500 already dead) is the worst possible, said Professor Kunchev. According to him, if people are vaccinated vulnerable, as well as those suffering from concomitant diseases, at the end of the pandemic there will be fewer deaths (probably only 5,000). Adjunct Professor Dimitar Atanasov from the New Bulgarian University presented a mathematical model for the coronavirus pandemic, which can be applied no only in Bulgaria. This model is related to the number of unregistered COVID-19 infected people who remain outside the official health statistics. “45 percent of those potentially infected with coronavirus are detected by our health system, and at the beginning of the epidemic this percentage was between 23 and 32 percent, or a quarter of the cases were detected “, said Associate Professor Atanas ov.