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Trends in mortality and movement in students and their parents: There is a continuous increase in mortality in the last two or three weeks from 4% to 8.5%. The rate of increase in deaths is increasing, which may be due not only to late deaths (long-term patients), but corresponds to similar trends in hospitalizations and intensive care patients as a proportion of active cases.
This is what mathematician Lachezar Tomov wrote on Facebook.
“In children, the rate of increase in cases is relatively high and it is a week before that of their parents. With the return of high school students, we see that the epidemic moves again from school to homes, since they are being tested more in high schools.
“The incidence of fourteen days per 100,000, which I estimate, is slightly higher than the official one, due to the updated number of people (a record number of deaths last year). The forecast of this incidence for the next three weeks is shown while maintains the current R = 1.1954 “, also writes Tomov.
“We will see if the increase in fatality is a temporary phenomenon or if it is an effect of the British version.
If so, the estimates we made are very underestimated, and currently there are 250 new deaths a day until April 10 ”, he concluded.
Bulgaria
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