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Adjunct Professor Dr. Mira Radeva is one of the most famous Bulgarian sociologists. Master of Sociology at the University of Sofia. He specializes in the University of Paris VII and the University of California at Berkeley, USA.
Doctor of Sociology at the Institute of Sociology of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences with a dissertation on “Conflicts in the organization”. Long-term professor at the University of Plovdiv “Paisii Hilendarski”.
Since 1991 he is the director of the MBMD Institute for Social Research and Marketing.
Author of the monograph “Public opinion in the transition years”.
Here’s Assoc’s opinion. Prof. Radeva on the hot topics in the country in an interview with “Maritsa”.
– What lesson should politicians learn from the 2020 pandemic?
“Don’t put your nose in so much.” We all realized how small we are, it is very sad. We must understand, as Georgi Gospodinov said, that we are more than me. However, this constantly eludes us, humans are terribly self-centered.
As a sociologist, I am in awe of what has happened and continues to happen. But there is a very important element in all this: the power of the media, of this world united by the media.
How could the Western world follow the example of a totalitarian China? If Wuhan had not been closed, Westerners would not have closed it. It turns out that totalitarianism has defeated democracy!
– Assoc. Prof. Radeva, we sent a difficult 2020. How and to what extent will the pandemic and protests reorganize the political puzzle in 2021?
– At the risk of sounding scary, 2020 was insane. Without a doubt, the power of GERB and Boyko Borissov for so many years began to bore a lot of people. The pandemic crisis has even accelerated this process.
But Borissov has always had an incredible sense of getting out of dramatic situations. Even in the 2019 European elections, when he received strong blows to his image, he played the ball to win them. And the situation then was really dramatic, it was even said that if they take away Tsvetan Tsvetanov, Borisov is out. However, the opposite happened.
Now, however, it is different, the situation is different, and getting out will be extremely difficult.
– However, GERB is still the first force according to the latest sociological surveys. Do they have the potential to maintain this position also in elections?
– No wonder GERB is the first force according to research.
First, because the other two options, BSP and Slavi Trifonov, have serious opponents in society.
For which group will prevail, it is necessary to measure respectively how many opponents there are. None of the top three contenders for power lacks public resistance. Each of them has supporters and opponents. Both Boyko Borisov, Cornelia Ninova, and Slavi Trifonov are actors who have a long-standing public presence, there is no way that everyone will suddenly fall in love with them now.
In my opinion, no one will be a big winner in the next election unless a miracle happens.
Each of the three great contenders for power also has a large group of opponents and will seek an alternative. And each one will choose for himself within the lesser evil of his position. Some will vote so that Cornelia Ninova does not come to power, others – so that GERB does not come to power, others – so that Slavi Trifonov does not come to power.
– Won’t this make forecasting for the next elections extremely difficult?
– In the end, it is extremely difficult to predict what format the next government might be. The unions after the elections seem very difficult to me. It will take many compromises.
But it is not ruled out that in the end they lead GERB with a little. However, if this happens, in my opinion, your opponents will not miss the opportunity to form a Patriotic Front against GERB.
Those who like Slavi Trifonov are the same as, for example, the so-called Patriots: a floating electorate of younger nationalist people always looking for a new expression.
The classic urban right, which is not big anyway, will go to formations like DSB and “Yes, Bulgaria”.
– Didn’t the protests show that the Bulgarian is not a revolutionary?
– We must stop talking about Bulgarian, there is no such thing. The very fragmentation of political formations is the result of the fact that we are different, we are not one. Many people are against GERB, but there are also those who are in favor of GERB: they report what has been done: underground, motorways, Ring Road. But the sense of stability began to grow.
– Is the cabinet “Borisov 4” excluded?
– I can’t say categorically, but yes. I think there will be OF against GERB.
– Why didn’t the BSP ride the wave of discontent and protests?
– Because that’s his potential. There are many things in the past that cannot be forgotten. It cannot be forgotten that the BSP has not had a single successful government in those years. And now, above all, they have two alternatives: they fought with the president and Maya Manolova is leaving with her own project. GERB is not good at all, but BSP does not look flourishing either.
People are looking for an alternative, but there is none, so the vote will most likely split.
But for Cornelia Ninova it is quite inconvenient that Maya Manolova and the “Poison Trio” are formed as an alternative to the left, there is nothing else to be.
– Which of the new players on the field have a chance of becoming important?
– Slavi Trifonov can become a third force. It will cleanse the smallest parts of the field, like Mareshki’s “Will”, like Siderov’s “Attack”; He will steal them all.
In my opinion, Slavi, if he manages to play his cards right, he will move the MRF from third position. That it has potential, I saw it in early 2016. And the Trifonov referendum is proof enough. Then he lost the opportunity, he hesitated, but now it is a serious request. Slavi has a chance to catch the so-called floating periphery – younger, more nationalistic people who are tired of family parties.
The research gives Manolova’s formation a result of around 4 percent, which makes the forecast for her extremely difficult. It will be decided at the last minute, depending on the campaign.
It is a very bad practice of our parties to campaign in the last minute not to draw their trump cards early. They think it’s good for them, but it’s actually super bad and makes the electoral process unpredictable, with surprises until the last minute.
– Who will benefit from an election date in March or May?
– First, politicians must stop thinking about themselves, for their own benefit. In announcing the date of March 28, the president acted absolutely incorrectly: the first possible date cannot be given without taking into account the general situation in the country. At the moment when people freak out, making the first possible date, without consulting, is, to put it mildly, reckless.
What is this president who calls the table and marks the first possible date! For me, it is logical to agree elections in a calmer and warmer period. Politicians need to think about the people, get more people to vote, not be afraid. They not only have to do personal accounts and who will return them to whom. Mutual oppositions and battles irritate people terribly.
– Is a political project or a battle for a second term the most likely choice of the president?
– I honestly don’t see this man in politics. He will probably try to win a second term, but he is too inflexible, not very diplomatic.
He really looks like a man who comes from a high post in the army and is used to giving orders and everyone responds: “I’m listening!” And this is not the position of a politician. And I think that’s why people chose him: physically he had the vision of a good commander-in-chief.
And when they began to hear what and how he spoke, how he behaved, they realized that they had been wrong. I think it certainly will not repeat its success, even if it is presented later in the year. We still don’t know who the other candidates will be, but I don’t see this person with a second term.
– Is a general duel between Borisov and Radev possible in the autumn presidential elections?
– In my opinion, Borisov will not make such an attempt. He’s been nominated for president for too long, but he won’t give you that pleasure. Borissov wants to leave with fanfare, but his term is not over yet. He has often come out of difficult situations, he has a talent for it. And there is time for elections and the situation is quite unpredictable and uncomfortable.
I don’t know who could be a GERB candidate. For example, the gene. Ventsislav Mutafchiiski inspires confidence, he had a very good image. Tomislav Donchev would be a very good choice, he seems to be the most expert, he can speak. I’ve always admired the way he balances his public appearances.
He is a good counterpoint to Borissov, he is always very moderate, he seems very expert, European. I wonder why GERB burned Rosen Plevneliev in such an idiotic way. And it remains true to them.
I doubt they can bring it back.
– Is the MRF still a stable player, after Slavi can displace it from third position?
“Oh, he can do more than they can.” They are stable, they will take theirs, but they have a natural limit. They are based mainly between Turks and Roma, no matter how hard they try, the Bulgarian vote will go elsewhere.
Slavi won’t take from the MRF, of course, but the Movement has a natural limit, while it has greater potential. It will unite patriotic voices and pull the rug underfoot from IMRO and NFSB.
– Is it possible that the next parliament is so fragmented that we have to go to the third elections, early parliamentarians?
– No, rather I hope that the OF anti-GERB agrees, I said it at the beginning of the protests. The entry of Maya Manolova in the parliament will help the FP in question. I am almost sure that Manolova, Trifonov, Ninova, MRF can unite against GERB and form a broad coalition cabinet.
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