Why is the number of newly infected with COVID-19 decreasing in Bulgaria? – Diseases

The decline is a combination of measures taken, but this week the R0 is 0.99 and we are close to maintaining a plateau. There is a decrease in the average age of new infections and a jump in children.

This was stated by Professor of the New Bulgarian University Dr. Lachezar Tomov in “The day begins with Georgi Lyubenov” at BNT.

In a week, according to him, this will lead to a jump in the newly infected.

“My rough calculations show that kindergartens and schools up to 4th grade are enough for R0 to be a little more than 1, that’s slow growth, but growth,” he commented.

He gave the example of the problems in England, which has closed everything without schools and has grown, and mentioned Germany, where students wear masks at school and still cannot cope without closing schools.

“So far, the effect of the holidays appears to be minor, which is consistent with opinion polls that most people have sensibly held. We’ll see what happens. Some people have a long delay in developing symptoms. However, it is 7 days on average there are also 15-20 days of development, “said Dr. Tomov.

According to him, he is concerned about trying to control the epidemic by periodically opening and closing by the same mechanism as before, with the expectation that now it will be better than before, and according to mathematics, on the contrary, now it will be worse.

“We have not had many infected people. The staff estimates are 12-15%, the upper limit is 20% infected, some of them have not developed antibodies properly and are therefore subject to reinfection,” added the mathematician.

We will not have reinfection from vaccines, he insisted.

“In the natural immunity that is formed, it is against a specific strain, and the vaccine targets an area of ​​the virus, the so-called spike protein, which is the same for all strains, so it is protected against all strains “explained Dr. Tomov.

According to him, in the next two years in Bulgaria there will be enough vaccines for everyone.. “Everyone is waiting for someone else to be vaccinated, and when a problematic critical limit is crossed, the opinion of the people is already overturned and people are ready to be vaccinated,” commented the mathematician.