Mathematician with a frightening prognosis for COVID-19 mortality in Bulgaria in 2021 – Diseases

The increase in mortality continues with its symmetrical decline, closely following the prognosis with a 100% dependence on the dynamics of new cases, that is. death caused directly or indirectly by the epidemic, not by the measures. The expected death toll is 121-122,000 by the end of the year. This is what the mathematician Lachezar Tomov wrote on his Facebook account.

He points out that, unfortunately, the record of 70 years of mortality per 1,000 people is reaffirmed, which we have not approached in a single year with a colder winter or a stronger flu season – or 1957 with 4 million -. Hong Kong flu deaths, neither 1968 nor 2009 with swine flu, nor the record cold of January 2017 are comparable to this year, as steps were taken in spring and fall to limit the spread and SARS-COV-2 it has reached between 10 and 20% of the population.

A mathematician with a forecast of what will happen if Bulgarians celebrate for no reason

In addition, in the UN forecasts such mortality would not reach the year 2100, we are closer in 2066 – 17.24 per thousand compared to the 17.4 projected now. This picture could be much worse next year if we fail to limit the spread by limiting contact and vaccination. So, if you don’t want 20 to 6 times worse than 2021 than 2020, be reasonable in your actions, regardless of your beliefs.