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Will the UK survive Brexit? Their unity has been put to the test by exiting the EU and regional aspirations for pandemic independence. To the extent that the country could fall apart, even some experts warn.
“The question is whether Brexit will lead to the end of the UK. This is certainly possible and even potentially the most likely outcome,” said John Springford, deputy chair of the think tank at the Center for European Reform.
According to the expert, with or without a trade agreement with Europeans, the impact of Brexit, which occurred on January 31 of this year, will deepen regional divisions, when it manifests itself in a concrete way. This will happen from January 1, when the country will leave the customs union and the European single market after the end of a transition period that offset the shock.
An alliance between four nations, the country is deeply divided by the Brexit referendum in 2016. And while Britain, which is the most populous, and Wales voted to break with the EU, Northern Ireland and Scotland supported permanence in the EU.
Defenders of independence in the last two provinces find it difficult to accept the message of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who reiterates from left and right that
The UK will prosper after turning its back on the EU for good on January 1.
In Scotland, Brexit was the catalyst for a new impetus to the cause of independence, a problem that appeared to be solved after the failure of the 2014 self-determination referendum.
With catastrophic consequences for people and the economy, the new coronavirus pandemic, managed at different levels by region, has reinforced this trend. The first prime minister of the local Scottish Independence Party, Nicholas Sturgeon, is believed to be handling the crisis steadily compared to Boris Johnson, who is believed to act chaotically, fueling aspirations for independence.
“Periods of weak growth tend to intensify political polarization,” said John Springford. “Add to that Brexit, a very unpopular conservative government in the north, and support for independence will grow even more,” he said.
Secession has never had such a headwind, according to recent polls, one of which, released in mid-December, shows that “Yes” to Scottish independence will win 58 percent, while in 2014 “No” . of independence won by 55 percent.
© Associated Press
Nicholas Sturgeon plans to make good use of this popularity to try to win the Scottish Parliament elections on May 6, 2021 and increase the pressure on Johnson, who categorically dismisses the idea of holding a new referendum on Scotland.
“The Scottish National Party hopes that the stronger the elections, the more difficult it will be for the British prime minister to keep saying no,” said Nicolas McEwan, professor of land policy at the University of Edinburgh.
However, there is nothing to suggest that the Conservative leader will back down. And an independent Scotland, integrated into the EU however it wants, would be forced
give up the pound sterling and build a pretty tough border with England,
preserve the integrity of the single market. But those economic arguments may not have the same impact as in the 2014 referendum. “Kovid and Brexit have made the economic security provided by the UK less secure,” the expert said.
Across the sea, the issue of the unification of the island of Ireland has again taken center stage more than 20 years after the end of the conflict that bled the British province of Northern Ireland.
Until the 1998 peace accord, Catholic Republicans, advocates of reunification and loyal Protestants, advocates of staying under the British crown, fought fiercely and killed 3,500 people in three decades.
Therefore, some have a very bad eye on the return of Brexit to the border with the Republic of Ireland, which is a member of the EU, even though Europeans and British want to make it as invisible as possible.
In February, arguing that Brexit had changed the situation, Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou MacDonald, whose party won parliamentary elections in Northern Ireland, said a referendum on the island’s reunification could take place in three to five. years. .
But for Dublin, whose priority is peace, “the catastrophic scenario would be a brief victory for unification, prompting a furious response from trade unionists,” said John Springford.
In more low-key Wales, the nationalist “Plaid Camry” party also promised a referendum on self-determination if it wins the next regional elections, a secession, which at this point seems incredible. / BTA
