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“The measures have paid off. We were close to reaching 10,000 cases per day. Right now, we have dropped below 2,000 cases on average per day,” mathematician Lachezar Tomov told Tazi Sutrin.
He predicts that next week there will be a decrease in mortality in patients with coronavirus.
“It will not come immediately, because the average age of patients has increased by 10 years in recent weeks, increasing the risk of severe development and mortality, but in any case, the reduction in the number of cases will lead to a reduction in the mortality, “Tomov said.
“It all depends on how the measurements are observed. At the moment we have a decrease in Sofia and several other districts, but we do not see a decrease in Burgas and Varna,” commented the mathematician.
“I expect an increase in cases no later than a week after the New Year, which will then decrease if the measures remain as they are now,” Lachezar Tomov said about the possibility of increasing the number of infected people during the next holidays.
On January 7 it will be clear if the measures have been complied with or if there have been big celebrations that will lead to a jump in the number of infected, predicts Tomov.
“If the primary school comes back, even though it has a small contribution to the transmission of the virus, there will be a jump, because the school connects all the jobs in one place, all the subnets in a common network,” Tomov said.
“There is still a lot of speculation about the new coronavirus strain, but it is said to be easier to spread among children. According to Professor Lauterbach from Germany, the infectivity rate of the new virus strain is 3, not 2.5 as before”. said the mathematician.
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