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PHOTO: PIXABAY
Researchers from Harvard University found a difference of 7 percentage points in the new cases
As low as the sun is in winter, we look for it because it creates a better mood and softens winter temperatures. But it turns out that this season, more than any other, there is a very important additional reason to expect more sunny days. It seems that the new coronavirus does not die from the sun, but it does not feel comfortable directly under the rays.
Natural variations in ultraviolet radiation affect the spread of COVID-19, although the impact is moderate compared to preventive measures such as quarantine, physical distancing and the use of masks, according to a new study from Harvard University. These findings suggest that
the frequency of COVID can
be seasonal,
spreading faster in winter, when the day is shorter and lightning strikes more gently than in warmer months. The findings are published in the publication of the US Academy of Sciences.
“Understanding the possible seasonality of transmission of the virus that causes COVID infection could help us with strategies for our response to the pandemic in the coming months,” study co-author Dr. Jonathan Procter of the Harvard Center told Science Daily. . environment.
The team analyzed daily COVID case reports and weather data from more than 3,000 administrative regions in more than 170 countries. They found that the prevalence of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID, is typically lower in the weeks after prolonged exposure to sunlight.
The seasonality of COVID has been a mystery since the disease first appeared a year ago, but there are some well-founded hypotheses that ultraviolet rays may play an independent role. Related coronavirus species, such as SARS and MERS, have been found to be sensitive to solar radiation, and recent laboratory studies have shown that
UV rays inactivate
SARS-CoV-2
on surfaces
However, attempts to understand the effects of ultraviolet radiation in the real world are limited by the paucity of data and the difficulty of isolating climatic variables from other factors that influence transmission.
To avoid potentially confusing factors that vary from region to region, such as health infrastructure or population density, the team examines how transmission changes within a particular community based on variations in sunlight, temperature, and precipitation. and humidity.
Changes in ultraviolet radiation after the transition from winter dormancy to longer sunlight during warmer months lead to a 7 percentage point slowdown in the rate at which COVID cases are increasing in the Northern Hemisphere, which it is about half the average daily growth rate at the baseline. of the pandemic. While this study shows that the infection is seasonal due to changes in solar radiation, the full seasonality of the pandemic remains unclear due to uncertain influences from other environmental factors such as temperature and humidity.
But the seasonal dynamics of ultraviolet radiation can also be used as a standalone forecast in anti-infective policy planning, including quarantines and travel restrictions.
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