A new poll shows who will win the parliamentary elections and who is below 4%

If the parliamentary elections are today, 18.6% would vote for GERB, 16.5% for BSP, 9% for “There are such people”, 5.4% for MRF. These are the safe participants in the next parliament, and the possibilities are “Democratic Bulgaria” with 3.9% and “United Patriots” with 3.5%.

This is demonstrated by the data of a national survey by the Exact Research Group, carried out in the period from December 5 to 12, 2020. Based on quotas (by sex, age and type of settlement) they were selected and interviewed “face to face “1025 adult Bulgarians in 70 settlements in the country.

The question about the parliamentary elections was asked openly: respondents were not offered pre-formulated answers.

79.6% of Bulgarians approve of the measures introduced against COVID-19, 94.9% affirm that they comply with them. 35.7% doubt if they will be vaccinated, with “rather yes” 23.2%, with “rather no” – 41.1%.

The entire survey by Exacta Research Group and the analysis of the owner and manager of the agency Lydia Yordanova, who is former director of the closed state NCIOM (National Center for Public Opinion Research):

Comment on data from a national survey by Exacta Research Group, conducted in the period December 5-12, 2020. On a quota basis (by sex, age and type of settlement) are selected and interviewed “face to face” 1025 adult Bulgarians in 70 settlements in the country.

Socio-political attitudes

In Exacta’s national representative survey in December, there is a significant predominance of Bulgarians who are not interested in politics in our country (74.5%) over those who are interested (25.5%).

17.6% of those interviewed identify themselves as permanently disinterested in politics in our country. Among them are more often young and low-educated people, Roma and villagers. 34% describe their interest in politics as weak and for a long time. Another 22.9% say that they have recently lost interest in politics in our country, and this is more often stated by women, people between 40 and 60 years old, respondents with a higher than average standard, but also extremely Bulgarians. poor as well as residents. of the towns.

Only 7.7% of those interviewed indicate that their interest in politics has been growing recently. They are mostly educated people and right-wing voters. 17.8% are Bulgarians, who say that in general they are very interested in politics and still maintain this interest.

Since the beginning of the protests (in June of this year) we have registered a decrease in the approval of most state institutions and an increase in their negative evaluations. This is especially true for parliament, the court, the prosecution and the government.

At the end of 2020, the BOC, the army and the police were the most approved (with a higher proportion of approval than disapproval), and the least approved were the court, the prosecution and the parliament. Parliament is the most disapproving institution in 2020.

The proportion of those who approved and disapproved of the work of parliament in December was 19.1%: 69.1%, compared to the court this proportion was 16.3%: 61.4%, and compared to the prosecution was 20%: 57.2%.

The government has lost 6% approval since the protests began and added nearly 10% disapproval during the same period. Disapproval of cabinet work in December was a significantly higher proportion than approval (61.3%: 28.4%).

President Rumen Radev’s approval in December was 50.9% and disapproval 37.6%. Over the past year, he lost 10% approval and added 12% disapproval.

Since the beginning of the protests, public attitudes towards the government have also changed more visibly. Parliament Speaker Tsveta Karayancheva added 16% disapproval in recent months, with 59.6% disapproval and 22.3% approval in December.

Support for her in GERB is high: 77% of party voters approve of her. Prime Minister Boyko Borissov has lost 8% approval since the protests began. In December, it was approved by 31.6% of Bulgarians and 60.7% disapproved. Borissov is approved by 95% of GERB voters. The Prosecutor’s Office was approved by 22.3% in December and disapproved by 57.7%.

Cornelia Ninova is the most approved president of a parliamentary group with 23.4% approval, followed by Daniela Daritkova with 22.0% approval. Ninova slightly increased her approval at the end of the year, with 3-4% disapproving of her after her re-election as leader of the BSP. Currently 88% of BSP voters approve of it.

As the regular parliamentary elections approach, the public’s confidence that GERB will serve its full term is growing. The proportion of those who expect GERB to complete their mandate according to Exact data from June this year. it was 57% and in December it was already 64%. Eligible for early parliamentary elections was cut in half in December compared to June (8%: 16%).

The answers to an open electoral question in the present study show that the reliable participants in the next parliament are GERB, BSP, “There are such people” and MRF. The difference between electoral support for GERB and BSP is of the order of 2% (18.6%: 16.5%). “There are people like that” are in third place with 9%. The electoral weight of the MRF amounts to 5.4%. The chances for the next parliament are Democratic Bulgaria with 3.9% of electoral participation and United Patriots with 3.5%. The potential of DB and OP could work for them in the coming months.

The electorate of “Levántate. BG ”, which in December amounted to 2.4%. The formation of M. Manolova is indicated as an independent party outside of the coalition formats discussed with her participation. Tsvetan Tsvetanov’s Bulgarian Republicans received an electoral weight of 2.4% three months after its founding. The smaller parties have the potential to see if they will absorb in the coming months.

Attitudes towards Bulgaria’s position vis-à-vis North Macedonia

The question of whether we should give the Republic of North Macedonia a second chance to start EU accession negotiations did not receive a clear answer in the December Exact survey. According to 46% of Bulgarians, we should not give the PCM a second chance to start negotiations with the EU until the disputed issues are finally resolved.

Among the remaining 53% of those interviewed, there are two nuanced positions. The first is softer: 14% would give Macedonia a second chance by the end of the year if PCM shows a good attitude and declares being ready to resolve disputes, and the second is more difficult: 39% would give PCM a second additional opportunity in time only if there is concrete evidence that the disputes between the two parties are being resolved.

Public Opinion on Government Actions to Address KOVID 19

79.6% of Bulgarians approve of the measures introduced by the government to limit the spread of KOVID 19 in Bulgaria from November 27 to December 21, and 20.4% are against it. Against the measures, most of the time it is young people under 30 years of age (37% of them), poor respondents and with low educational level. Most opponents of the measures are among those living in regional city centers and residents of small towns across the country.

94.9% of those surveyed said that they complied with the measures introduced by the government and 5.1% said no. More often, the measures are not observed by men, people under 40, the poor, the poor, Roma and residents of small towns and villages.

Most of those surveyed: 69.5% say they believe in the official information about the spread of KOVID 19 in our country, and 30.5% do not believe (more often they do not believe in the representatives of those groups and strata than do not follow measurements).

23.2% of Bulgarians say they would be vaccinated against KOVID 19 and 41.1% say they would not. 35.7% also hesitate when deciding whether to get vaccinated and need more information about the effectiveness of vaccines and their side effects. Men, people in their 40s and 60s, and residents of the capital are more likely to get vaccinated. Most of the time, they point out that people in regional city centers would not be vaccinated.

APPENDIX

The data in the tables and graphs are from the December national representative Exacta survey

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