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Y the Spanish flu of 1918 is considered the prototype of a modern pandemic. At the end of the First World War, it spread like wildfire: first among the soldiers and then the returnees from the front carried it around the world. The victims of the three waves of the Spanish flu are between 50 and 100 million.
The unusually high mobility of people during the war, which is almost comparable to today, has further fueled the pandemic, said Albrecht Richl, an expert in economic history at the London School of Economics.
“We know that the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe started with the outbreak in the Austrian town of Ischgl.” We can say that the army training camps in the United States, England and France were the equivalent of Ischgl at the time, although not they skied in those places, but they did much more dangerous things, “he said.
Damage of the new coronavirus compared to other epidemics
What measures help?
The way the infection spread among the military and then among civilians was the same as it is today. And even at that time there were debates like today: for example, if there is an effect of protective masks, if schools are closed and mass rallies and cultural events are canceled. Even then there was a partial restriction of public life. The data on the effect of this measure comes mainly from the United States, says Richl.
“Where a closure was declared earlier and lasted longer, the economic damage was generally less than in those places where they tried at all costs to keep economic life active,” said the expert. . This can be seen in the level of unemployment, production and local taxes. “It turns out that the blockade was a positive thing from an economic point of view. That surprised me a lot, ”says Richl.
Did you go to school during the Spanish flu?
The global economic crisis, which began in 1929 with the collapse of the world stock market, also provides material for analysis and comparison. The stock market crash is the starting point of a long-term economic crisis. Many countries, heavily indebted since World War I, have reacted austerity to halt the decline. These measures were a “poisonous cocktail” for the economy, Richl said.
“At that time, the situation in Germany was similar to that of Greece or Italy in 2008: the country was forced to save and this had almost the same effects as in Greece: a decrease in GDP, which was probably due to around the 25%, in addition to mass unemployment and other similar adverse effects, “he said.
However, during the financial crisis of 2008, at least in Germany, they did not trust austerity, perhaps because they had learned lessons from the global economic crisis. However, some other southern European countries have been ordered to save. Today we know it was wrong, Richl said.
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So as not to fall into a deep crisis
If the same mistake is not made now, the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic will likely not have as long-lasting consequences as some previous crises. “The 2008 financial crisis was caused by functional disturbances in financial markets, that is, from something that came from financial markets and from the economies themselves, while the coronary crisis was a shock caused by the epidemic, which is a factor external, ”explains Richl.
The relatively quick recovery after the first wave of the pandemic shows that the economy is much stronger today than it was in 2008. And given that there are many programs to help economies today, we might assume that most likely learned lessons from the history.
