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Until the last Friday in November, the name of scientist Mohsen Fahrizade was unknown to most people around the world, as well as to Iranians themselves.
Massive protests against Fahrizade’s assassination are taking place in the country today, ayatollahs have vowed to avenge his death, and many analysts and experts say the assassination attempt against him could have a greater effect on politics in the region. even since the elimination of the almost ubiquitous Kasem Soleimani.
Mohsen Fahrizade, a world-class expert in nuclear physics, is the man considered the father of Iran’s nuclear program and its leader.
So far, no state or group has claimed responsibility for Fahrizadeh’s assassination, although Iran is clearly pointing the finger at Israel, if not as the direct perpetrator, then at least as the force responsible for organizing the attack.
According to the latest information from the Iranian authorities, the scientist was shot by a remote-controlled machine gun. It was mounted on a car that was ambushed by Fahrizade’s caravan, with the “logo and specifications of the Israeli defense industry” on the weapon, Iran’s English-language Press TV reported.
Meanwhile, just a week ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the head of the Mossad intelligence service made a secret visit to Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. This statement was categorically denied by the Saudi authorities and actively silenced by the Israeli authorities.
Is it possible that the removal of Mohsen Fahrizade was discussed at this unconfirmed meeting? They are just speculations that, at least for the moment, cannot be confirmed.
But what benefit could Israel have from such a blow against the Iranian scientist?
According to Mark Fitzpatrick, an associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, which closely monitors Iran’s nuclear program, “the point where its existence depends on one person is long past.”
If this is the case and Tehran’s nuclear program itself is not the target of this attack, it leaves two scenarios for the possible cause of this attack: putting a barrier to any possible warming in US-Iran relations, or cause Iran to act. retaliatory actions such as punishing the attack.
In fact, just a few weeks ago, the Israeli military completed its biggest exercise of the year – “Deadly Arrow” – in which one of the scenarios was a response to an Iranian-made ballistic missile attack on Israeli cities.
In the context of threats of revenge from Iranian leaders, this scenario sounds surprisingly relevant. However, if achieved, one thing is certain: any attempt to normalize relations between Washington and Tehran will be blocked indefinitely.
Would Israel really make such a dangerous move just to put a stick in the wheel of a new nuclear deal with Iran?
The probability of a serious military conflict at the moment is small, and Tel Aviv has inevitably calculated it. Neither Tehran has the strength to do it, nor Israel, nor even Saudi Arabia. America’s efforts to form a broad coalition here have yielded some results, but they are far from sufficient to unleash concrete plans on a large scale.
So this assassination of the Iranian scientist can be interpreted simply as an attempt to undermine the plans of the next White House administration to “return things” to the situation before Trump’s intervention and withdrawal from the nuclear deal.
Currently, several countries in Europe are actively pushing for a return to the previous situation, since in their eyes, peace with Tehran will guarantee the stability of the region and the restart of business.
However, something like this is detrimental to America’s traditional allies in the Middle East, Israel and Saudi Arabia, who are trying to oppose the Ayatollahs’ plans for the region.
In its foreign policy, Tehran has long sought to create a land corridor from Afghanistan in the east to Lebanon in the west to ensure the free flow of arms supplies to Iran’s Shiite allies. Its aim is to create a buffer against Sunni forces in the region as a factor influencing the entire Islamic world, while at the same time creating a strong enough resistance to the actions of the other leading regional adversary, Israel.
In this regard, the Trump administration was (and remains) intransigent: a tough policy toward Iran, imposing more sanctions, pressuring European partners to give up doing business with the country, and generally placing the ayatollahs in power in total isolation. .
It is debatable to what extent the US president’s plans have been successful, but a change of government in the US can certainly give Iranians the encouragement they need to stabilize the economy and strengthen foreign plans again. That is why Biden is hoping for Tehran to normalize relations with the United States to its usual cold simple level of 2015.
A possible warming of relations, however minimal, passes through the lifting of sanctions on Iran, and this, in turn, means an opportunity for the country’s economy to recover little by little after being hit extremely hard. for the coronavirus.
A new outbreak is currently not in favor of anyone, least of all Iran. However, if the country decides to meet the challenge, it will put it in a situation where negotiations with the United States would be much more difficult and even impossible to achieve.
However, the authorities of the Persian country currently have no choice but to retaliate, including through their militias and subordinate groups. The question is how severe the blow will be and against whom will it be directed. It is clear to everyone that after a certain point, the conflict will only deepen.
For Biden’s team, meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is becoming a problem to be solved rather than an ally.
However, it is not clear if the new president is ready to take real action on the issue or if he will simply put up with the situation so as not to cause even greater shocks.
One possible move is for Biden to take on the role of the “good cop” after the “bad” Netanyahu bared his teeth, proving he could kill one of Iran’s most valuable agents in the safe suburbs of Tehran.
One thing is for sure: In the coming months, politics in the Middle East will be a dance on the blade of a well-honed scythe, from which everyone involved can cut themselves.
