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“The biggest pressure will probably be the first half of December,” Professor Nikolay Vitanov from the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, a mathematician at the National Operational Headquarters to Combat Coronavirus, told BNR.
He recalled that at the beginning of September he defined October as a month of transition and November as critical, laying the foundations for what will be in winter: “If we don’t act now, December will be difficult, and January and February too.” . Emphasized that
our health system can no longer cover the growing number of patients.
“The capacity of our health system, RHI, is to open the contacts of about 2000 new cases a day. When cases cross this line, control becomes very difficult, and no matter how great the discipline and the good health system, the virus spreads.
That is why it is good to know this limit and strive to keep the number of new cases below it. If it is above it, this virus has shown that it can destroy any health system, even that of the United States, ”explained Professor Vitanov.
He was convinced that
If the measures are strictly followed, the number of new cases will drop to about 800 cases in about two weeks.,
but in winter it will be no less than that.
According to the professor, the virus’s time is running out because information about successful vaccine trials is multiplying. It recommended that reasonable means be used to pass the period until the finished vaccine is available with few casualties.
“We’d better stay healthy until the vaccine arrives. If the vaccines appear quickly enough, a large part of the population may not encounter the coronavirus,” the mathematician added.
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