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This year will probably be the warmest for the Northern Hemisphere.
– Prof. Rachev, do you report any records this fall, after the previous one was in the top 5 of the driest and warmest?
– This year there are no records, but autumn in our country again seems warmer and drier. November is not over yet, so far it is about 3 degrees warmer than normal and very dry.
There is already great opposition between the American model and the European Center for Medium-Term Forecasts.
Americans forecast not so cold as of Tuesday and expect November to end 0.5 degrees above normal.
However, according to the European Center, there will be a big cold snap on Tuesday and then at the end of the month, leading to normal temperatures for the period. The biggest difference in the forecasts is in terms of precipitation.
At the moment, in some places they are zero, in others – only 10% of the norm. According to the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts, rainfall is expected from November 18 to 19 and November 24. It will happen, we will see it in the next few days, because as I pointed out, the two models are of opposite opinions.
There will probably be a cold on Tuesday, but it won’t be as noticeable. In this way, however, we will return to normal temperatures for the month. It’s still hot, especially during the day, but it’s cold in the morning. In Burgas, they are even preparing to turn on the heating, but there is usually a wind that creates a feeling of cold.
In any case, autumn will end warm, with average temperatures 2 degrees higher than usual, and rains below normal. Only in October the rains were above normal in most places and this helped plant the fall wheat and rapeseed.
– Is there a danger that the harvest will be compromised?
– Not for now. The danger can only be if at the beginning of December we have severe frosts and fraternization. Then there may be individual frosts. However, so far no such prospects exist. So the situation is favorable for agriculture.
– But the trend is still warmer than usual.
– That’s right, and it’s not just about autumn. Almost all seasons are like this. This year we hope it will be one of the warmest in the Northern Hemisphere and in Europe.
It is likely that if the trend continues, because autumn is generally warm for Europe, it will be the second or third warmest since the measurements were taken. However, 2016 is still the absolute leader in this regard.
– Many people are now worried about when to expect the first snow. Especially since there will be a cold next week.
– The cold itself is not always associated with snowfall. The cold can be dry. In any case, more than 1500 m will be snow, but when we will enjoy the first snowfall in the settlements, we can say a few days before the event.
Now it is difficult, especially since there is a discrepancy between the two weather models. The probability of this happening between November 17 and 18 is less than 20%. Therefore, the first snowfalls will be in the last ten days of November and the first in December.
Since these are medium-term forecasts, and the type of precipitation is required, be it snow or rain, you must first see what the air mass temperature is and whether it will rain at all. As for the question of whether it will snow on Christmas, the answer may be 3-4 days before the rain, otherwise it is all guessing.
– What kind of winter awaits us after all?
– It is believed that winter will be normal and warmer than normal between 0.5 and 1 degrees. This is not small. Even the European Center predicts more than 1 degree warmer in the Balkans. For now, the forecast is for rainfall to be below normal.
Only the European Center expects a fairly rainy December. But the forecasts of both centers change according to the world situation. And now we are witnessing the La Niña phenomenon, which is the cold phase in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean.
The temperature there is 1 degree lower than normal at the moment. But when we talk about millions of square kilometers, this has a different distribution. The United States and Mexico, for example, are very hot right now, there have been fires in California.
The terrible winter in America is not mentioned. But now the winter should be cooler than La Niña, but there is no reason to believe that there will be extreme cold.
– Will there still be ice days?
“Of course, in any case.” However, these periods are now shorter and their frequency is also lower. But there will still be frosting, we can’t get away with it. In two weeks we will have the shortest day, only 9 hours.
So, in a clear climate, the cooling of the earth will be strong. Then fogs can form, which become shorter and shorter and diverge. These are small drops of water on the surface of the earth.
They are dangerous for drivers and airplanes. But now many flights have been suspended. It is true that the air quality is improving every year, many people are already heating with electricity, centrally heated buildings are increasing, old cars have been replaced by newer ones, but there is still something to be desired.
However, it is dirty in the valleys, not to mention the fine dust particles. There are some small ones that we don’t even see, they are 2.5 microns.
There is no mask to protect us from them, and sometimes they are aerosols. When they dissolve in water, they turn into tiny droplets. But the air cannot be clean as long as we continue to burn in our chimneys.
Let us not think that we do not pollute the atmosphere by heating ourselves with damp wood or charcoal. On the contrary, they are a serious source. That is why I advise people to flee to the mountains or the countryside at every opportunity, if they get the chance.
You can see what the weather will be like in days and hours in the BLIC section, where we inform you about the country’s weather conditions.
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