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ACTS Post opinions with a wide range of perspectives to encourage constructive discussion.
Diplomats from the Minsk Negotiating Group had airline tickets, but they remained in their pockets. None of them left Washington, Paris and Berlin because the war in Nagorno-Karabakh ended before they took off. Putin and Erdogan, Aliyev and Pashinyan agreed to divide the South Caucasus without asking anyone. Russia and Turkey have established a monitoring headquarters, but only Russian troops will be responsible for the truce.
In this brief, multi-day war, Armenia lost part of the enclave’s territory to Azerbaijan. Consequently, they celebrated the victory in Baku, while in the other country, the anger of the Armenians turned out to be stronger than their pain. In Yerevan, they besieged the parliament and the entire diaspora around the world demanding reprisals for the perpetrators.
After the Russian intervention stopped the Azeri invasion, the question arises: why did Putin have to wait two months? Was it enough that they shot down a Russian helicopter over Armenian territory to mark the end of the war?
All the geopolitical experts have opened the history almanacs and, as in any confrontation between Turkey and Russia, they rub their hands in anticipation of their next conflict. The match between the two ancient empires would be extremely fun if it didn’t cost millions and cost the lives of thousands of victims. In the first war 30 thousand died, in the last 5 thousand. What is new about recent events is the incarnation of the Turkish president. In addition to claiming the lands of the Ottomans, he increasingly saw himself accused by the Prophet of the victory of the Muslims over the infidels. The actions of the Russian president are devoid of any religious or emotional charge. On the other hand, it shows a chilling determination that Erdogan prefers not to put to the test.
In the Caucasus, the Turkish president is pushing to make his way to the Caspian Sea. Armenia, with its “Upper Karabakh” hinders it. Azerbaijan, a part of the empire sold by Stalin’s Kemal Ataturk, is a Turkish ally “by birth”. Russia has long refused to help Turkey out in the Muslim-speaking republics of the Caucasus. Out of a purely strategic interest, Putin has excellent relations with Baku. Part of Azerbaijan’s weapons are Russian. Moscow is diligently courting President Ilham Aliyev over the route of future oil and gas pipelines. The transfer of valuable raw materials is always profitable for the country through which they pass.
Things are different with Armenia. The small Christian republic depends on Russia, and for Russians, Armenians are their closest people in the region. The first war between Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out in 1988 and ended with a relative victory for Ereven in 1994. Adorned with the aura of a winner, Serge Sargsyan, a friend of Putin, took over the fate of the Armenians in 2008. Meanwhile , Russia and Armenia have signed a military cooperation agreement and Moscow is acquiring two military bases in the country. Sargsyan remains in power for 10 years.
Like other Caucasian republics, the judiciary does not function and corruption is rampant in the upper echelons of power. Neither more nor less than the neighbors of Armenia. The proximity to Russia attracts the people of the Soros Foundation and, like Georgia, they invest not only in the fight against corruption, but also in anti-Russian intent. After a series of street riots, Serzh Sargsyan resigned and the journalist Nikol Pashinyan, fully supported by the American Foundation, was elected prime minister.
It is quite possible that Putin, who does not forget anything, refrained from quickly interfering in Upper Karabakh to rub the noses of anti-Russian intellectuals in Yerevan. It is more true that the Russian president is fed up with the unproven accusations against Russia for poisoning Sergei Skripal and Alexei Navalny, but the sanctions against Moscow continue anyway. The same applies to the Crimean peninsula, which has been owned by Russia since Catherine the Great’s victory over the Ottoman Empire.
The international institutions: the UN, NATO, the IMF, the World Bank, the Commission in Brussels, the European Parliament, all follow the Russian-Turkish Ballet of tanks and planes, with their mouths open but without making noise. Unlike Putin and Erdogan, there are clearly “white pages” in the memory of the world elite.
To understand Russian-Turkish relations, historical and geopolitical almanacs should not have been opened until the 19th century, but long, long before.
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