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More than 18,000 may be victims of COVID-19 in Bulgaria in early February 2021. This is demonstrated by calculations by scientists from the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington, cited by “24 hours” As of yesterday, the The number of deaths from coronavirus according to the national information center was 1,632, which means that in the next two months alone about 17,000 Bulgarians could lose their lives. However, the expected number of victims of the disease in Bulgaria is 18,600, if they are not imposed and precautionary measures are not observed, specify the American scientists.
In the current situation, when masks are mandatory outdoors only if you are in a large group of people, the expected number of victims at the beginning of February should be about 8600 people. This is an increase of more than 5 times the number of deaths compared to the current level.
The most optimistic scenario is for just over 4,000 victims as of February 1, 2021. However, it is valid if the use of masks is mandatory everywhere and is observed by at least 90% of the population. Under current measures, the American model works with 41% compliance with the use of a mask. The best observance of the measures in Bulgaria is reported by the American model in April, when 64% of the population observed the use of a mask.
With 353 deaths in a week, Bulgaria marked the 7 darkest days since the start of the epidemic in March. The weekly increase is 80%, mathematician and crisis management expert Petar Velkov said on Sunday. Analyst Tihomir Bezlov notes an increase in the percentage of deaths compared to those infected.
“You can predict that the number of deaths will continue to increase, given the number of people in the intensive care unit at the moment and that deaths are delayed by 3-5 weeks compared to the number of newly diagnosed. For now, the deaths have reached 18.6% of total deaths, compared to 10.2% last week, ”analyzed Bezlov on his Facebook page.
The lethality of the disease in Bulgaria will continue to rise, predicted mathematician Petar Velkov for BNT. “It will be a blockade, it is inevitable. The question is when. The longer we wait, the greater the damage,” he insisted.
If all Bulgarians observe the currently imposed precautionary measures, the number of infected people will decrease to 500 per day, predicts BAS mathematician Prof. Nikolay Vitanov. Make the mathematical models on which the National Operational Headquarters makes its decisions. Now the measures are not being complied with and this is the reason why cases are increasing, Vitanov explained to Nova TV.
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