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“The biggest effect, with the liberalization of the measures, on the growth of an epidemic is the opening of schools and the possibility for people to meet in public places.”
This was stated to NOVA by the pulmonologist of the General Hospital for Active Treatment “St. Anna” Prof. Kosta Kostov. He cited a study by scientists at the University of Edinburgh, which covered 131 countries.
Dr. Kostov noted that opening schools and allowing large public gatherings lead to an increase in those infected by 20-25% in two to three weeks.
Again an increase in coronavirus infections, new victims
He noted that “St. Anna” is one of the most active medical institutions in the fight against the covid-19 epidemic in Bulgaria. Currently, the hospital treats 70 patients with coronavirus in general wards and 5-6 in critical condition in intensive care, all of them with severe cases of the disease.
“When the school year started, we waited 2 to 3 weeks and there was an increase in cases. In the last few days, they have increased by almost 100 every day. New cases have increased 13 times compared to the end of September,” Professor Kostov said.
According to him, the decision to leave the younger children in the class while the older ones study at a distance is balanced.
“Society is used to knowing that after a common pneumonia before this pandemic, the patient must recover in 20-30 days. In fact, so is the length of sick leave we take, “said Professor Kostov.
“But this is not the case with covid – pneumonia. It has been established that almost 97% of patients discharged from the hospital after severe or very severe forms of the disease suffer from various symptoms, which are not less than 5 and on average around 14, “said Professor Kostov. He added that during the treatment itself, patients have more than 30 symptoms.
New measures against COVID-19 starting today, which contemplate
“The most important complaints that remain in patients after covid-19 are of the respiratory system. It is the target organ of the disease.
The expert pointed out that there is a so-called prolonged covid, and no less than 30% of patients present one or more symptoms even at the sixth month after the disease. And 50%, to the third.
Professor Kostov reported that there are patients discharged without complaints, but when they are examined, discrete permanent changes are established in the diffusion capacity and resistance of the respiratory system. The doctor added that for now there is no way to say for sure if these symptoms will go away.
“I am optimistic and hope that most patients will outgrow these symptoms,” said Professor Kostov. “I think these patients will not be more than 1% of all those infected. Because we do not know all those infected. We do not have this data in Bulgaria.”
He also commented that in Western Europe the number of new infections is 2 to 6 times more than in the spring, but mortality has decreased from 3 to 6 times.
“Mortality around the world tends to decrease, not only because of our increased knowledge of the disease, but also because of improved clinical and therapeutic protocols,” explained Prof. Kostov.
“In the spring, the death rate in intensive care units was 70%, now it’s 30%. In Bulgaria, however, mortality is increasing slightly. I think the hospitals here are much more seriously ill, ”explained Prof. Kostov.
