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In October, the sociological agency Barometer Bulgaria conducted a regular telephone survey on the electoral attitudes of Bulgarian voters. With the onset of autumn, it is noted that although the protests continue, the emotional response to them subsides, despite their extensive media coverage. On the other hand, the debates in the European Parliament and the resolution voted against Bulgaria provoked a public reaction and had the potential to influence the level of support for individual political entities.
1. If parliamentary elections were held today, which political force would you vote for?
In the second decade of October, the GERB continues to be a leading political force, although the last weeks and months of protests and scandals have affected the percentage of those who wish to vote for them: 20.9, leading to a slight reduction of the distance between the first and second actor on the political scene. . Without a change in trend, the BSP failed to convince the mass electorate that they were a reliable alternative to the current government and did not attract new votes beyond the reach of its hardliners: 15.1% of those who wanted to go to the polls. . The MRF is the third political force with 7.9%, representing its traditional supporters. The inclusion of texts for the “Istanbul Convention” and
The Macedonian minority in the resolution of the European Parliament and in general the raising of these issues by an external force is perceived as a great interference from patriotic voters, which is reflected in the consolidation and increase of support for the OP : 7.2 percent, which would make patriots political quarters. force in a future parliament.
Slavi Trifonov’s party “There is such a people” marks a stagnation in its support – 3.9% of voters, highlighting the silence bordering on the absence of the political formation and its leader on all current issues that have excited the society in recent months. , which does not go unnoticed by their supporters, who are mostly young, willing to look for the new and interesting, but who rarely go to the polls.
The loser of the European Parliament resolution at the moment is “Democratic Bulgaria”: on the one hand, the start of the discussion is joint between the right wing Radan Kanev and the BSP MEP Elena Yoncheva, who is perceived by right-wing voters as a dishonest deal with his long-time political opponent, on the other the resolution surprisingly included controversial and unexpected texts that could be seen as an attempt to interfere with our sovereignty and criticize our Constitution. The apparent coalition with the BSP and the support for the Istanbul Convention, gay marriage and the separatist OMO Ilinden in the European Parliament of their leader Radan Kanev is the reason for the withdrawal of voter sympathy for them. DB would receive the support of 3.0% of the voters.
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2. If the first round of the presidential election took place today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?
Next year, in addition to the parliamentary elections, presidential elections will be held. Clarifying that the true presidential candidates are not entirely clear at the moment, the Bulgaria Barometer polls its respondents on who they would vote for if top political leaders and public figures were to run in the presidential race. As expected, the first two positions would outline a “general” battle with a difference of 4% between Prime Minister Boyko Borissov (24.2%) and the current president Rumen Radev (20.2%). With his balanced position and stable approval among voters, they are followed by Defense Minister Krassimir Karakachanov (14.5%). If he runs, another general should not be underestimated. Ventsislav Mutafchiiski (8.9%).
Apart from the battle of the first two in the second round, but with clear support, the informal leader of the MRF, Ahmed Dogan, is also expected, who can count on the unconditional support of the supporters of his formation (7.5%). In majority elections like the presidential one, Slavi Trifonov would receive 3.9%, as much as his parliamentary party. Maya Manolova would receive greater support (3%) than her parliamentary formation (1.7%). On the other hand, Hristo Ivanov, as a presidential candidate, would obtain relatively fewer votes (2.5%) than the DB in the parliamentary elections (3%).
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specs
Research period: 10-16.10.2020
Methodology: quantitative study
Representation: the population of Bulgaria entitled to vote
Sample size: 866 people over 18 years of age
Methodology: sample of quotas stratified by age and sex
Method: telephone interview
Financing: Own
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