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We are entering the fourth wave of coronavirus, and the forecast is that the number of new infections in the next month or two may exceed 1,200 people a day, especially if stricter measures are not taken. This is one of the conclusions of a scientific study, which has covered the entire period of time since the beginning of the spread of the coronavirus in our country until now, has predicted with the highest precision the development of the infection.
The author of the study is Prof. Preslav Dimitrov, Dean of the Faculty of Economics at Southwestern University, and the purpose of his research is to influence the economy and specifically tourism. The forecast is also terrifying: there will be almost no winter season. Anxiety, which was also expressed by the industry.
“This is the Holt-Winters method for double exponential smoothing in the presence of cyclical trends. The study takes all the statistics on the number of infected and performs a development curve. If it is long enough, its logic can be derived from development, ”Prof. Dimitrov explained to BNR.
According to him, a standard model is used in the Balkans, in which certain factors are determined, influencing the respective amount, which is studied and forecast.
“Although here the assumption is accepted that after the relevant indicator has developed sufficiently, this development has reflected all possible factors – internal, external, that have made their informative contribution, but with greater weight it is taken into account what is happening here and now. Based on this, the forecast is made for the next 90 days. Forecasting methods are not the absolute truth, they are a probabilistic process. In mid-June, the model predicted what is happening now with the number of infected, ”he said.
According to Professor Dimitrov, there is no strict correlation between the number of deaths and those infected.
“This is typical for Bulgaria. The number of deaths is still a downward trend. Perhaps district governments and mayors should be empowered to introduce regional measures.” Don’t just rely on the central government, “he said.
Professor Preslav Dimitrov described the most alarming forecasts.
“The level of unemployment that will be achieved by stopping the tourism industry during the winter season. Of the five big 5-star hotels, one has opened, maybe closed at some point. Of the 4-star hotels, a significant number will also not open. If no steps are taken to limit infection, the season will fail … Appropriate steps must be taken to help the end user, directly. This will be good for the whole economy, because the money will be used to buy goods and services and boost consumer demand, which will be important for the winter months, then it will be very difficult. At the same time, the number of unemployed will increase ”, warned the expert.
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