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TO Whenever violence and tensions erupt between Armenia and Azerbaijan over disputed territories, Moscow’s intervention generally forces the two former Soviet republics to come to the negotiating table to make concessions, including to Russian interests. This time, however, Russia’s calls for an end to the escalation of violence in Nagorno-Karabakh since September 27 remain unanswered, as the conflict in the Caucasus is this time on a different level.
Escalation, Armenia kills Azerbaijani general
Unlike the 1990s and 2000s, when Yerevan and Baku fell into serious contradictions and clashes several times, in 2020 the situation was different, both geopolitically and militarily. Part of the reason for this is Turkey’s intervention as a regional power that is changing the balance of power in the Caucasus region.
And so, in recent days, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, defined as one of the so-called “frozen conflicts” left as a legacy by the USSR, entered all the world news. Although most analysis still goes through the old-fashioned prism of the confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it is now increasingly felt that there are many new elements, including the way the war is fought.
In just two days, there are dozens of victims and hundreds of injuries. The two countries have mobilized their armies and have blamed each other for who caused the violence. There are already civilian casualties and the number is likely to rise as it increases. Not only fighters, but also drones fly through the skies of Nagorno-Karabakh, which in fact have become the Azeri army’s main means of attack against Armenian positions.
The drones were provided by Turkey and are the same model that Ankara uses in Libya against General Khalifa Haftar’s forces backed by the United Arab Emirates, France and Russia. In both the Libyan deserts and the Karabakh mountains, drones bring serious damage to the Russian air defense systems available to the Armenian army.
Turkey’s rise as a regional power has altered the delicate conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in which Russia has traditionally played as a power broker https://t.co/psV8wsW5EA
– Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) September 29, 2020
High-tech military equipment is not the only new element in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Both Turkey and Azerbaijan, as well as Armenia, respectively Russia, accuse the other country of using mercenaries at the front. There is mounting evidence that Syrian fighters have been sent via Ankara to Azerbaijan, where they have been hired by a private company operating in Baku.
Expert: Turkey repeats scenario with Libya in Armenia
According to the latest data, the deaths of at least 13 Syrian mercenaries killed in fighting with Armenian forces have already been confirmed. Turkey has officially denied its involvement in the transport of mercenaries, accusing the Yerevan government of using the services of Kurdish fighters from the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), with whom Ankara has had a decade-long confrontation.
Although there are still no confirmations of these allegations, this will not come as a surprise, as PKK fighters have trained forces in Nagorno-Karabakh in the past. Not only that. There are also reports of Lebanese of Armenian descent (Lebanon and Syria have large Armenian communities) who have gone to fight on the side of Armenia. Georgia also referred to the confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan after it detained Armenian volunteers traveling through its territory to Karabakh.
Climbing, martial law in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh
Tbilisi has very fragile relations with Yerevan, with the two countries at least once in the last three decades. There is a large Armenian minority in Georgia with strong separatist attitudes. To further complicate matters, the threats also came from Iran, where shells fell during an exchange of fire between Armenian and Azeri forces.
Tehran has warned that its border forces are ready and called on Armenia and Azerbaijan to refrain from firing near the Iranian border. Iran is watching with concern any conflict in the Caucasus, especially if Azerbaijan is involved, as there are more than 15 million Azeris in Iran itself with a long history of clashes with the central government of Tehran. In fact, all these signs, including the use of mercenaries, suggest that the conflict in the Caucasus is leading to the involvement of more and more forces and ethnic groups, and this will deepen the crisis.
Turkey-backed Azerbaijan launches counteroffensive
This draws attention again to the issue of the use of mercenary forces on the front lines in general in the 21st century. Turkey, however, had already established a model for recruiting Syrian fighters for its proxy wars when it began transporting them to Libya to support government forces in Tripoli, which had been besieged by Khalifa Haftar’s units until this spring. The inclusion of mercenaries in Azerbaijan is another element of Ankara’s expansionist policy, which is already extending its influence deep into the Middle East, East Africa, Libya and the Mediterranean.
#Infographicsshowing the location of the Turkish forces outside #Turkey.
(Bloomberg; De Re Militari, open sources) pic.twitter.com/GzsYih6qo2
– From Re Militari Journal (@remilitari) September 30, 2020
Turkey is not alone on the battlefield. The Russian mercenaries are there too. The Kremlin-backed Wagner has deployed fighters in many of today’s active conflicts, from eastern Ukraine through Syria to Libya, the Central African Republic and Mozambique. The latest data shows that Wagner is also in Armenia.
Russia has a large military base in the city of Gyumri, the 102nd military base, which serves as a major bridgehead for Russian influence in the region. In recent days, military trucks have passed through Iran heading to base 102, and one of the planes used by the Russian mercenaries was spotted over Armenia. It is not clear whether the plane was carrying equipment or fighters, but Russian instructors have arrived in Yerevan in recent months and are now at headquarters directing the Armenian defenses in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The conflicts in Syria and Libya are already linked to the Caucasus, and this speaks to the dynamics that exist in geopolitics today. Hundreds of Syrians living in the territories occupied by Bashar al-Assad have left for Libya, similar to the Syrians that Turkey sent from northern Syria to Tripoli. The Russians are also recruiting fighters from eastern Syria, where Wagner has a strong presence, and recent footage says there was a new recruiting drive a few days ago.
New fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, some dead
Speculation suggests that some of these Syrians will likely be diverted from Libya to Nagorno-Karabakh. Ordinary Syrians have become a cheap and useful wage force, while the Syrian economy has collapsed and millions make their living off humanitarian aid. This is why the proposed salary of $ 500 to $ 2,000 per month (from both Turkey and Russia) sounds more than tempting. The failed revolutions and ongoing civil wars in Africa and the Middle East provide an opportunity for any country in need of mercenaries to exert regional influence.
Private companies see opportunities in conflicts like the one in Nagorno-Karabakh. The situation there may seem unfamiliar and surprising to most people, but tensions have been rising steadily for at least a year. The boiling point was in the summer, when Azerbaijani positions were regularly shelled and this led to a joint Azerbaijani-Turkish exercise. Russian officials have called for a ceasefire, but at the same time Moscow is transferring troops to Armenia. Ankara’s intervention further complicates the situation, and Turkey and Russia could find themselves in another clash in addition to Syria and Libya, which is not good news for either NATO or the EU.
Armenia: Turkey shot down our plane, Ankara denied
The Azerbaijani army has said that the pressure will continue until the Armenian forces leave Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku also uses international law and UN resolutions that recognize the territory as occupied. In recent days, there has been a serious media campaign from both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Fake news and dubious sites flooded the online space, including in Bulgaria, directing public opinion to one country or another.
But on the ground, things are more complicated. If the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict spreads to other parts, including the interior of Armenia and Azerbaijan, it will cause earthquakes outside its borders and could affect energy supply to the EU, as the Shah Deniz pipeline passes very close to the front.
Macron: We won’t accept that
So far, Brussels does not have a serious position on the facts and it is unlikely that it will, due to the differences between the main member states, such as Germany, Italy and France. Paris has already warned Turkey, with whom it has a dispute in the Mediterranean and Libya, while Italy has a direct interest in Azeri gas. Germany will probably try to mediate, but it will be a difficult task. Moscow and Ankara remain the main forces that can stop the conflict, but their positions are increasingly divergent.
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