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Hope dies in the end: Despite the avalanche of bad news, Borissov does not give up and is stubborn about his resignation. What are the resources at your disposal? And what miracle can you bet on?
Comment from Daniel Smilov:
Boyko Borissov entered a political trench warfare, and in a losing position. Against him are the massive sentiments of more than 60 percent of Bulgarians, the fiery protests and the growing critical attitude of official Europe, which is finding it increasingly difficult to swallow corruption in Bulgaria. Especially when this corruption of an abstract problem materializes in a specific record or photo.
The prime minister’s general strategy is, to put it mildly, also in question: the convocation of a Grand National Assembly was effectively torpedoed by the MRF, making it unlikely to garner 160 votes for a new constitution. His United Patriots partners, on the other hand, appear to have blocked the idea of majority elections, which would give the GERB some electoral bonus or at least a small legislative victory to brag about. SPIEGEL’s disclosure of the inhumane and illegal handover (as a violation of fundamental rights) of a Turkish citizen to the Erdogan regime was a cover – a scandal that only adds negative color to an already rather unappealing managerial image.
Hope, however, died last, and despite the avalanche of bad news, Borisov did not give up. What are the resources at your disposal? And what miracle can you bet on?
Fatigue
Government spokesmen count the protesters every night to illustrate that people are getting tired. Each miracle in three days, maximum 60. When this limit is reached, the energy decreases and the public’s interest in the protest decreases. It is true?
The problem here is that the disgust remains and the trust is already gone. The even more episodic protest corrodes the popularity of both GERB and Borissov. There will be elections anyway: the outcome will be clear to them. And the flame of discontent burns and every wrong or doubtful step of the government is ignited in mass gatherings of people.
The distribution of money
Bulgaria is in a relatively good financial situation and Borissov will use this fact to buy, if not popularity, at least time. The problem with this strategy is that it does not work for the GERB constituency, the people in the community who are interested in good and responsible governance.
The GERB is supposed to be a right-wing party, but it is willing to distribute money not only without reforms, but simply to postpone a problem. The 50 million for the headquarters of the Maritza Basin is a good example: postponing the difficult decision to switch to greener technologies for the next government to guarantee union silence.
EU funds and loans
With Bulgaria’s membership in the banking union and the EU’s plans for a recovery fund in the coronavirus crisis, the country has very good opportunities to access cheap credit. Borissov is already taking this opportunity to obtain a long-term loan.
This loan is a great temptation in a pre-election situation. And the risk is that it will be used for government public relations in one form or another. At the very least, it is unclear if there is a strategy for spending the money. But the lack of a strategy is an advantage if the goal is to distribute funds on an ad hoc basis to build a dusty image.
Deterioration of the epidemiological situation
The popularity of Borissov and GERB increased significantly during the state of emergency and quarantine. The performance of the headquarters and General Mutafchiiski won the confidence of a large part of the people, although there was much criticism. Borissov may be looking forward to a similar miracle later in the fall. However, it is difficult to enter the same river twice. General Mutafchiiski’s authority had already been used. And it was undermined by the swift repeal of all headquarters measures, as well as the second wave of the virus in Bulgaria.
Although the disease is very dangerous, we already have a better idea of it. We also have an idea of what it takes to fight the virus. It is therefore unlikely that there will be an “emergency” similar to that of March, April and May, which will allow the government to take all power, suspend parliamentary life and hold “extraordinary” daily briefings.
However, this does not prevent Tsveta Karayancheva from closing access to parliament to citizens and experts: a good example of how the coronavirus can be used for non-political purposes.
GERB staff renewal
As a specialist in the psychological and physical training of personnel, Borisov certainly thinks about attracting new people to his party. Most likely they came from the breeding ground of Georgi Harizanov’s “right-wing” cadres: young conservatives, skeptics of the EU, and enthusiastic about national populists like Trump, Farage and Le Pen. This profile is still present in GERB, but it focuses on the person of Georgi Markov, which gives him a noisy but marginal character. The idea of the renewal will obviously be that this profile enters the mainstream of both the GERB and the Bulgarian public.
At the same time, Nikolay Mladenov, who definitely has a different profile, made numerous public appearances, which gives reason to think that he too will be part of the renewed squad. Perhaps even as an “expert prime minister.” However, whatever the qualities of potential newcomers, they are unlikely to be among those who have criticized the corrupt practices in the government that led to the protests. In this sense, the “renewal” will not be recognized as such by at least 60 percent of Bulgarians. However, some of the others may appreciate Borissov’s desire to surround himself with more Georgi Markov politicians, legitimized for Europe by one or two like Nikolai Mladenov.
Search for future partners
Borissov knows that he cannot get along with Democratic Bulgaria unless he agrees to unravel the web of dependencies he has built with the MRF and other players. But that can’t happen and he doesn’t want to. After the election of Cornelia Ninova, the BSP will refuse to commit to GERB. Slavi Trifonov remains. And Borisov directed all his charm on him: he himself proposed reducing the deputies to 120, he became a defender of the majority system, the pro-government media focused on “democratic Bulgaria” and Radev and in general were more lenient towards Slavi’s party .
Trifonov himself did not send a signal that he was succumbing to Borisov’s offensive and was firmly behind the cause of the protests. But GERB’s positioning towards him is visible and not so surprising.
The parable of the hedgehog and the fox
The hedgehog knows one thing. The fox has many numbers. The protesters are a hedgehog: they are convinced that Borissov has crossed the border beyond which he cannot remain prime minister of an EU member state. And that’s why he and his magistrate alter ego, Ivan Geshev, insist on leaving. However, Borissov is a fox; You hardly doubt the correctness of this general conclusion, but you know many little tricks that can help you push the hedgehog into the river.
If this taunt is successful, Bulgaria could collapse into something between the EU and Belarus. Becoming a democratic-autocratic platypus, a hybrid between European claims and the methods known to authoritarian states, in which the leader, whatever happens, remains in power.
This collapse can and should be avoided.
Bulgaria
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