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ACTS Post opinions with a wide range of perspectives to encourage constructive discussion.
And after Borisov what? Will it be “more or less the same”? Such thinking is irrational. There is no way to organize everything at once. But one thing is clear: inaction and resignation do not advance. Comment from Veselin Stoynev.
And then what will happen? The question posed by critics of the anti-government protest sets the framework for the answer: the communists will return, GERB will remain, Slavi Trifonov and Maya Manolova will come, and the traditional right, even when it grows up, will continue to play the second violin, and so on. This is exactly what many expect. But where does it follow that “more or less the same thing” will inevitably happen?
That one-way thinking is doomed to beware of disappointments and to reap disappointments. But reconciliation and inaction only prolong the life of evil. Do you know there is no way that everything can fit together?
The decisive step can be taken on September 2, if hundreds of thousands of citizens protest in Sofia and the country, then the government is likely to fall. The Attorney General is more difficult, but the pressure on him can continue and count on success when left alone.
It is the turn of the parties
After Borissov’s resignation comes the turn of the parties. Because they transmit political representation, and the protest was formed only by citizens that in this capacity no one can represent. And instead of the Poison Trio, it is time for the party leaders to be acceptable to the victorious common civil front. For example, Hristo Ivanov from “Democratic Bulgaria”, Krum Zarkov from BSP and a screenwriter from Slavi Trifonov’s “There are such people” party. And it is better to have an even broader party leadership agreement, which, however, does not establish a pre-electoral coalition, but concludes a judicial reform pact in the next parliament, as proposed by Hristo Ivanov. And in the elections, everyone according to the sword they can draw.
Sociological research so far cannot provide an adequate electoral panorama, because we are not yet in a pre-electoral situation, and they themselves can be a tool to distort the panorama in one way or another. However, they are already shaping some trends. One is quite understandable: a strong exit from GERB, under pressure from the protest, and a rather inexplicable sharp fall from the BSP, which supports the protest and prepares for a leadership vote. We can fully explain the growth of “democratic Bulgaria”, whose actions enraged Ivan Geshev and which stormed the presidency to provoke a wave of protests. And the not so explainable growth of “There are such people”, which supports the protest mainly through the transmission of Slavi Trifonov on small televisions and social networks.
It is reasonable to assume that the systemic opposition formations will gain more strength. “Democratic Bulgaria” would grow further in its wing of the DSB if Atanas Atanasov, who is far behind Hristo Ivanov in leadership and energy, gave way to someone like (or himself) Radan Kanev, who would further choose the formation of the coalition. . It is not possible to speak of renewal in the BSP at all, because Cornelia Ninova already seems to be a highly desired person in the party and abroad in the face of the alternative Kiril Dobrev, considered a red version of a mutated Gerber partisan.
The difficult is yet to come
The biggest unknown now is the political attitudes of the youngest, who are the emblem and the energy of the protest. Until now, sociologists have not studied them as a separate group. They will probably lose this opportunity, because a significant number of young people will return to the West, where they will study and work. Even in the vote itself, we will not understand what its political orientation is, because exit polls and polls are not conducted abroad. At this point, however, it won’t matter much if all the parties behind the protest implement the judicial reform pact in the next parliament. Because after the overthrow of Borissov’s cabinet, this will be the institutional guarantee for the conquest of the State from the arbitrariness of the Prosecutor’s Office.
The difficult is yet to come. At the protest, citizens may have different political beliefs, but together they want Borisov and Geshev to resign. Yes, many did not buy into this “collaboration with the enemy”, so the protests are not as massive as they could be. However, after the resignation, citizens will have to watch without disgust as the colorful leaders of their party work together to negotiate institutional change. It requires broad political support, beyond the capabilities of even a party that has won a majority in parliament.
What if it turns out that the party that won the vote is too small and it is necessary to look for broad coalitions or other forms of government, or will early elections be held again? This will not be dramatic, but it will mean that the political process is simply tortuous and slower. But there will be a long way to go.
Reconciliation and inaction do not advance. Exactly the opposite. This is how it got unbearably bad.
Bulgaria
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