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Seven political formations enter next parliament, Sova Harris poll commissioned by Trud newspaper shows
See the full study HERE
For the moment, everyone – the ruling party, the opposition and the protesters – speaks from the position of the people, that is, they overestimate their role. This is how a textbook expresses a political crisis, a situation in which no one knows its place. Getting out of such a situation is done through elections.
Electoral attitudes
The survey data gives us a snapshot of electoral attitudes. It should be noted that, as a result of the protests, political passions were similarly aroused on the eve of the elections. 54% of voters declare that they are completely sure they will vote. Another 18% – they have some confidence and will probably go to the polls (or machines).
64% of voters give a specific answer about who they will vote for. This is a relatively high level of activity for our country. The aggravated situation has not only increased interest in the political sphere, but has also led to changes in political preferences. GERB is still the leading political force with 17.8%, but according to our research it has lost 3.5% since the beginning of July. The coalition partner in government IMRO and WILL, which usually supports the majority in parliament, also has some decline. Consequently, the declared support for the BSP is 15.7%, which represents an increase of 3.5%. The biggest advance is in “There is such a town”, 4.9% compared to July. This makes the famous showmen party a third political force with 10.1% support. The MRF is also expanding its presence to 5.9%. We know from experience that in real elections the Movement always receives more than the declared vote at the polls.
According to the indicator “confidence”, the new party “There are such people” is the best of all its opponents with an indicator of 22.5%. This is due to the fact that this formation attracts supporters from across the political spectrum. However, to turn this favorable attitude into an electoral result, serious evidence before the voters of political correctness and competence is needed in the run-up to the elections.
The BSP has a confidence increase of almost 20%, and in this situation they are even ahead of GERB, although less than one percent. It seems that the Socialists are on their way to overcome the crisis of confidence that they had fallen into at the beginning of the KOVID-19 epidemic.
Confidence in GERB has been reduced to the percentage of voters for this party: 18.8%. At the same time, however, we are registering the mobilization of the hard core of supporters of the ruling party.
There is also a dynamic in the attitude towards the main political figures of our country. President Rumen Radev, in his role as a critic of the status quo, overcame the crisis of confidence in him at the beginning of the epidemic and is now approaching the usual qualification of head of state.
With 48% confidence, he replaced the president of the National Operational Headquarters, Ventsislav Mutafchiiski, with 37%. Slavi Trifonov is already in third place with 31% confidence. Personal attacks on the Prime Minister are clearly reflected and we see a significant drop in him at a 20% confidence level, which is comparable to the proportion of GERB supporters. At the same time, we registered an increase in trust in other prominent figures of the ruling party such as Yordanka Fandakova (26.4%), Tomislav Donchev (20.5%), Tsveta Karayancheva (13.1%), Denitsa Sacheva (12, two%).
The protests
Civic discontent initially provoked a spontaneous reaction of sympathy and support from public opinion, but its gradual politicization caused some erosion and hesitation.
Initially, more than 60% of adult citizens fully supported the protesters. Now we register that unconditional support has been reduced to 48%, with another 25% in favor, but with some conditionality.
When it comes to radicalization and civil disobedience actions, the majority of the people already disapprove: 46% to 38% approve. Obviously, protesters must find the right measure if they want to remain in the limelight. Otherwise, they run the risk of compromising.
The ideas that the prime minister brought to light through his proposal to convene a Grand National Assembly (GNC) have changed the focus of public debate. In essence, his proposal contains things that have been floating in the public space for a long time, but that due to the disagreements of one political lobby or another, have not been developed to the end.
Presented to the general public, without mentioning their original source, they receive the approval of a “qualified” majority. For example, the thesis that the Attorney General should be required to report to parliament every six months is supported by 84% of the people. Also, the mandate of the Attorney General’s Office and the presidents of the Supreme Courts will be reduced from 7 to 5 years according to 81%.
At first glance, only the idea that the president is elected by parliament is rejected, not by direct vote: 17% are in favor, while 66% are against. Of the ideas launched by IMRO, there are only doubts about compulsory military service: 41% approval versus 44% disapproval. The approval of the introduction of mandatory military training is 62%, of the introduction of an educational qualification to vote – 61%.
The idea that the next parliamentary elections will be for the Supreme National Assembly, although initially raised by the protest, is not unequivocally accepted. 32.5% are in favor, while 35% are against. The preferred thesis is that it is enough to make modifications to the current Constitution. 43% of people think so; 17% believe that the current Constitution should not be modified and 18% believe that it is necessary to approve a new Constitution.
The results obtained show that society has a predominant idea of what the changes should be and how the reforms should proceed. Most of the announced proposals can be decided by an ordinary National Assembly. The contentious question is who is legitimate to make the changes. By raising the issues for public discussion, the prime minister tried to regain the initiative. Those who believe that the main objective of Boyko Borissov’s proposal is to raise important issues in the country for discussion are 22%. This means that the support of the Prime Minister consolidates the supporters of GERB and its partner parties. For 61%, the main objective is to buy time and survive in power. Furthermore, for now, the protesters continue to uphold the thesis that the government must first resign and then think about what to do: 50% of the country’s citizens agree with this.
31% do not agree with this thesis. We find that for the moment the theses of the protest have the advantage, but at the same time the consolidation of people who have an opposite point of view is underway. The distribution of influence of the two camps is best seen in the position of what the next parliamentary elections in our country should be. This issue is at the heart of the political opposition, although the timing of the two options is almost the same.
For the ordinary elections of March 2021, organized by the current government, 35.5% of the voters. For early elections organized by an interim government, 47%. Apparently, the confidence between the two fields is zero. The protest remains charged with influencing public attitudes. At the same time, there is a process of consolidation of the opponents of the protesters’ theses, who rely on their main argument: security.
The COVID-19 pandemic
The issue of the coronavirus epidemic cannot be ignored, as the world continues to live under the sign of this threat. So far, both the institutions and our society have reacted flexibly and Bulgaria has been relatively successful in coping with the disaster. 31% is the proportion of those who claim to comply strictly, and another 57%, who comply with the imposed restrictions. This shows an adequate response to the challenge. The increase in the proportion of people who say they do not comply with precautionary measures is worrying, from 6% two months ago to 9% now. Obviously, to avoid a breach in the system, it is necessary to tighten the measures that guarantee public safety.
The data of the present study clearly show a process of significant political change and the imposition of new actors. However, this does not mean that the existing structure has collapsed and that the established political forces are withdrawing.
An option where GERB and BSP are not present in the next ruling coalition is preferred by 36% of voters. At the same time, it is better for Bulgaria to be governed by a center-right coalition with GERB participation, 19% believe. And that it is better for Bulgaria to be governed by a center-left coalition with the participation of the BSP – 18%. A broad coalition between GERB and BSP prefers 5%, showing that this option is not popular with voters.
If there are no significant changes for the next parliamentary elections, it is most likely that we can assume that 7 political entities will be present at the next National Assembly. Some of them are made up of complex coalitions. This implies extreme fragmentation, in which the formation of a parliamentary majority will be a difficult task. Obviously, the transmission of a consensus reformist majority to carry out radical reforms in the country’s government structure will have to be postponed indefinitely.
Obviously, regular or early elections in the country will develop a process of political chaos and unpredictability.
The data comes from a representative survey of the adult population of the country, carried out by SOVA HARIS on behalf of the newspaper “Trud” in the period from 19 to 25 August 2020 among 1000 Bulgarian citizens. The survey was carried out using the standardized face-to-face interview method at the respondent’s home.
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