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Chinese scientists have conducted a comparative analysis of the development of the pandemic in more than 60 countries around the world. They highlighted 12 of them, where it would be impossible to stop the epidemic without stricter measures and an increase in the number of daily tests.
Researchers led by Professor of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology Fu Xingmiao analyzed the development of the new coronavirus epidemic in 61 of the most affected countries, “to characterize the progression of the pandemic in each, which could improve the country’s readiness and the response should be optimized “
After a comparative analysis of the number of daily new cases, they divided the countries studied into 4 groups.
The first includes 22 countries: China, South Korea, Spain, Italy, Germany, Iran, Switzerland and others, where the number of newly infected has decreased in the last 14 days after the peak. The second group includes 20 countries, including Russia, Brazil, India, Ukraine, Belarus, Morocco, Kuwait, Ecuador and others, where “the number of daily cases increases rapidly or slowly over time.” The third group includes 7 countries with an uncertain situation: Turkey, Panama, Finland, Colombia, South Africa, Argentina and Hungary. And the fourth group includes 12 countries in a “static” period, in which the daily growth of infected people remains high for more than two weeks. It includes the United States, Great Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Chile, Romania, Algeria, Moldova, Canada, and the Philippines.
The analysis emphasizes that the same number of new infections for more than 14 days is unusual, since the incubation period for COVID-19 varies from 1 to 14 days and averages between 5 and 6 days. The researchers say that the number of daily tests in these countries is significantly less than in countries where the epidemic is declining, but the positive results are still high.
These data show that the potential for testing in countries with a static phase lags behind the spread rate of the epidemic, that is. The number of new confirmed cases per day is probably less than the actual number of daily infections. In this way, unregistered or undetected cases of infection will increase over time, further accelerating the spread of the virus and ultimately making it impossible to stop the epidemic until the virus has spread throughout the world. population.
Scientists emphasize the need to expand the possibilities of daily testing to identify more new cases while adjusting quarantine measures to reduce the actual number of new infections.
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