Former U.S. Vice President and current Democrat nominee Joe Biden will make a statement in Kiev on December 7, 2015, announcing the outcome of his talks with the Ukrainian President.
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Despite some tough sanctions and harsh criticism, Russia has not topped President Donald Trump’s presidency in US foreign policy priorities, given its innate relationship with its counterpart Vladimir Putin.
However, if Democrat nominee Biden wins the Nov. 3 election, that could all change, according to experts, who are in the U.S. – Biden is weighing the president’s influence on Russia relations.
In a very short time, analysts expect that Biden’s victory will increase tensions between Washington and Moscow, and increase the likelihood of new sanctions on Russia.
The country is already operating under international sanctions on some key areas close to Putin and on Russian officials, including actions involving Ukraine’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, interference in the 2016 US election and involvement in a nerve agent attack in the UK. 2018.
Mutual distrust
Tendrius Tursa, a Central and Eastern Europe adviser to Tenneo Intelligence, said Biden’s victory would help the U.S. And transatlantic relations between Europe will improve and see a “new US commitment to NATO” welcomed by Europe.
However, he also said that such a result would mean “mostly downsides for Russia”, the Kremlin and the U.S. Citing a recent history of mutual distrust and strained relations between Democrats.
“In general, Biden’s possible presidency will be negative for Moscow and will likely lead to further deterioration in bilateral relations, both in terms of rhetoric and objectivity. .
US President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 28, 2019, on the first day of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan.
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“The Kremlin’s dislike of Biden, meanwhile, is the date for his push for sanctions against Russia, especially in response to the 2014 Ukrainian crisis.”
Despite efforts by Germany and France to broker a lasting settlement, a meaningful conflict resolution over Crimea for what both sides can do, and in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine (where there are two pro-Russian territories declaring themselves republics) still excludes Moscow and Kiev. Stay together
Tursa argued that without the tangible process of resolution of the conflict in Donbass and Crimea – Biden was heavily involved as vice president – “Moscow can hardly expect any meaningful easing in sanctions,” and potential Biden could lead to more stringent execution of the presidency. Existing measures.
Allegations of Russian interference in the 2020 presidential election could also increase the risk of new sanctions, he said.
Mutual interest
Any new sanctions on Russia are not likely to be imposed immediately, according to Timothy Ash, a senior emerging markets strategist at Bluebee Asset Management.
“While I think the path of US-Russia relations will be on this deteriorating path, I am not sure that additional ‘paint-up’ sanctions on Russia should be expected to roll out immediately,” he said on Saturday.
“I think those candidates, who run Russian affairs in Biden’s presidency, are all very experienced and level-headed. They don’t want to roll approvals for approvals. They want to be very proportionate and logical in approach.” That said, the U.S. is committed to ensuring delivery to the U.S.’s strategic interests. That’s why it’s important to have a business-like relationship with Russia.
He said that under Biden’s presidency, both sides must learn “where they can tolerate each other and reduce the risks of conflicts in areas of mutual interest – such as arms control – where defense strategy competes interests, for example, Ukraine, Belarus.” And areas like Turkey. Sanctions will be part of the tool kit here, but that’s just one such tool. “
A new beginning
Arms control is an area that both Russian observers believe, however, can be an issue of mutual interest and some harmony. Biden has hinted that he will say in 2019 that he would like to see an expansion of the US-Russian Nuclear Weapons Reduction Treaty, known as the New Strategic Weapons Reduction Treaty, or something like that.
“Based on recent statements from both sides, negotiations on a new strategic arms reduction treaty (start) are an area where progress can be expected if Biden is elected,” Teno’s Tursa said. “However, the timeline will be extremely challenging as the current treaty expires on February 5, 2021.”
Russia itself has acknowledged that arms control could be a positive dynamic under Biden’s presidency. In early October, Putin criticized Biden as a “sharp anti-Russian rhetoric”, but also said he was encouraged by Biden’s comments on a new arms treaty or the expansion of a new START.
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