Alleged Democratic candidate Joe Biden
Joe Biden Biden Campaign Criticizes Trump’s Rose Garden Event As ‘Sad Affair’ New Stops Add To Trump’s Problems CNN cuts Trump’s Rose Garden speech on type of campaign MORE Guides President Trump
Donald John TrumpIvanka Trump launches Goya Foods products on Twitter Sessions defends the challenge: “I leave the elected office with my integrity intact” Former White House doctor Ronny Jackson wins the second round of Texas MORE by 13 points among registered voters in Pennsylvania, according to a new poll.
The Monmouth University in Pennsylvania poll finds Biden at 53 percent compared to Trump at 40 percent, with 4 percent undecided and 3 percent saying they will vote for someone else.
Ninety-three percent of Democrats say they support Biden, compared to 84 percent of Republicans who say they support Trump, who won Pennsylvania by less than 1 point in 2016 and became the first presidential candidate. Republican to lead the state since 1988. Biden leads more than 20 points among independents, 54 to 33.
Biden also leads 54 to 35 percent in so-called “swing counties” where the race was closest in 2016. Biden leads 68 to 26 percent in counties that Hillary clinton
Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton Democrat Dana Balter will face Rep. John Katko in the rematch of the New York House of Representatives. He won by wide margins, while Trump leads 55 to 40 percent in counties he easily won in 2016.
Biden leads by 30 points among voters under 50 and leads by 10 points among voters over 65. The president leads by 13 points among voters ages 50 to 65.
Trump has a 16-point lead among white voters without a college degree. Biden leads by 27 points among whites with a college education. He leads by 60 points among racial minorities.
Republican Rep. Mike Kelly
George (Mike) Joseph Kelly The Hill Campaign Report: Key Races Take Shape in Alabama, Texas, Maine Republicans say Biden’s energy plan will help the Republican Party in the Rust Belt States. (Penn.) He said this week that the polls in Pennsylvania cannot be trusted because they disregard Trump’s support from those who first came to vote in 2016.
Kelly argued that the “likely voter” models used by many pollsters are not sampling those first-time voters.
But Trump really does better on Monmouth’s “likely voter” model than when Monmouth evaluated all registered voters in the state.
When Monmouth considered a likely voter election in Pennsylvania, Biden leads by 10 points. When Monmouth considered a low-turnout election of likely voters, Biden’s lead falls to 7 points.
“Even considering any probing errors from four years ago, Biden is clearly doing well in the swing areas,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “The Democrat has roots in this region that may be helping him, but there appears to be a general erosion of support for Trump compared to 2016.”
Trump and Republicans have also argued that there is a “social convenience bias” in the polls because Trump’s so-called “shy” voters are embarrassed to admit that they support the president for fear that his family, friends or co-workers will exclude them. . .
The Monmouth poll found that 57 percent of all voters in Pennsylvania believe that there are secret Trump voters in their community.
54% of registered voters said they were surprised when Trump won in Pennsylvania in 2016, and Pennsylvania residents are equally divided on who they think will win the state in 2020.
“The media constantly reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016,” Murray said. “The specter of a secret Trump vote looms in 2020.”
The new Monmouth poll found that Biden’s advantage is greater than other recent polls. Biden leads in Pennsylvania by 7 points on the RealClearPolitics average. A recent poll by the Trafalgar Group, which represents Trump’s so-called “shy” voters, found Biden ahead by 5 points.
Monmouth’s poll of 401 registered voters in Pennsylvania was conducted July 9-13 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
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