A new poll on Pennsylvania’s crucial general election battleground shows Democratic challenger Joe Biden with a double-digit lead over President Trump among registered voters.
But the poll, released Wednesday by Monmouth University, indicates that voters are evenly divided over which candidate they think Keystone State will win, as most respondents believe their communities have a number of “secret” voters. Trump. “
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The former vice president and presumptive Democratic nominee led the Republican incumbent in the White House among registered voters 53-40 percent, according to the poll, which was conducted July 9-13.
Biden had a minor advantage over Trump among the smallest group of likely voters. He outperformed the president 52-42 percent under a higher likely voter turnout model than the turnout in the 2016 presidential election, and held a 51-44 percent lead under a lower likely turnout model.
But the poll shows that registered voters are divided on whether they expect the president or Biden to win Pennsylvania in the end. One reason may be that 57 percent of registered voters surveyed said they believe there is a sizable number of so-called secret voters in their communities who endorse Trump but do not tell anyone about their support. Only 27 percent said they believe there are secret voters for the former vice president.
“The media constantly reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016. The specter of a secret Trump vote looms in 2020,” said director of the Monmouth University Survey Institute Patrick Murray.
Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, had been run by Democrats in the presidential election for a quarter century. But Trump narrowly outscored Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in all three states in 2016, helping him win the White House.
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The new poll indicates that the former vice president outscored Trump 93-1% among Democrats, and the president defeated Biden 84-12% among Republicans. Biden has a 21-point lead among independent voters.
The poll also shows Biden with a big 31-point advantage among voters under 50, and a 10-point advantage among those over 65.
Murray noted that “even considering any probing error from four years ago, Biden is clearly doing well in the swing areas. The Democrat has roots in this region that may be helping him, but there appears to be a general erosion of support for Trump compared to 2016. “
Biden, who was born and spent his first 10 years in Scranton, Pennsylvania, before moving to Delaware, maintains strong ties to the state of Keystone. He has held seven campaign events in Pennsylvania in the past two months.
The poll launch is less than four months away from the November general election, which is still a long time in campaign politics. And the President and the Trump campaign have repeatedly criticized public opinion polls as flawed and accuse the polls of not showing Republican voters.
The Monmouth University poll was conducted using live phone operators, with 409 registered Pennsylvania voters questioned. The survey sampling error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
