- Nobody believes that Alexander Lukashenko won 80% of the presidential vote in the Belarus elections – which is why there was fighting on the streets of Minsk this weekend.
- The chaos irritates Russian President Valdimir Putin, who has long wanted Belarus to remain closer to Moscow than Europe.
- But Belarussian officials arrested 33 Russian mercenaries, presumably on their way to the Middle East, in a spa outside Minsk, complicating Putin’s subsequent move.
- Putin will likely have to make a deal to get them back, security sources told NATO Insider.
- Visit the Business Insider website for more stories.
Sunday’s re-election of Alexander Lukashenko as President of Belarus is proving to be a debacle: he claims to have more than 80% of the vote, causing violence last night by incredible opposition supporters who simply do not believe the numbers . Officially, Lukashenko defeated a barrage of challengers, including rival Svetlana Tikhanovskay, the wife of a prisoner of war who was forced to hide in the capital Minsk on Saturday by the arrest of her campaign staff.
At least 120 people were arrested in protests spread to Brest, Gomel and Grodno, including Belarusian cities.
Protesters could be seen on social media confronting police in the wake of the announcement. They alleged voter turnout by the incumbent 27-year-old party before the interview began, pointing to inflated polls in multiple areas as evidence. In one case, activists recorded video of an interviewer who escapes to the back of a polling station on a ladder while bags of what the activists claim are excessive moods.
Now analysts and intelligence agencies are asking themselves how Russia, and its quarterly president, Vladimir Putin, will react to the unrest.
Lukashenko has played Putin against the EU for years
Lukashenko’s growing ability to play the European Union in the west and Russia to the east to bring in international assistance has increasingly irritated Putin, who has long pushed for a closer economic and political union with Belarus, according to a NATO military intelligence officer based in the Baltics. Talks between Belarus and Russia erupted in January after Lukashenko reportedly received far more economic support from Moscow than the estimated $ 10 billion it receives annually for imported subsidized oil and natural gas.
The official, who has no authorization to speak on the record, asked to speak anonymously in exchange for speaking freely about the crisis. The source’s analysis was confirmed by two other NATO / EU intelligence officials.
“It is not a great situation in general, but doubly dangerous, because no one can say for sure what Putin will do,” the NATO official said.
“The poll was a fraud, but this was expected by everyone from the EU to the Belarusian people to the Kremlin,” the official said. “After 27 years of moderate success in Belarus, neutral between Russia and the West, Lukashenko fell out of contact with his people. This is a normal crisis for a dictator like him. What is unusual is Russia’s confused position. “
Lukashenko ‘apparently ran these mercenaries on their way to the Middle East and freaked out Putin’
It was the July 29 arrest of about 33 Russian citizens, presumably mercenaries for a Kremlin-backed private military company, operating in the Middle East, in a spa outside Minsk that is really putting things aside. , voted the three European intelligence sources.
“[Lukashenko] “These mercenaries are apparently on their way to the Middle East and Putin freaked out,” said the NATO official. Several of them appear to have collaborated with the separatists in Donbass [Ukraine] and there are arrests in Kiev for them. Preventing them from being sent to court in Kiev, where they would almost put Putin down, is a top priority and is currently stopping the anarchy in Minsk. And the top priority is to keep Belarus out of the EU and socialize with Moscow. “
All three intelligence officials agree that the election campaign is in Putin’s agenda.
“Lukashenko clashes with his own people and pulls ire out of the EU, so if he stays in power he wants to crawl back to Putin for political and financial support,” the official said. “How far [Putin] is ready to go to keep [Lukashenko] in power probably depends on what happens next, but it is clear from the strict wording of the Kremlin’s congratulatory statement sent today that Putin will expect a new enthusiasm from Minsk for his regional agenda. “
Putin’s statement was not subtle: “I expect your governorship will facilitate the further development of mutually beneficial Russian-Belarusian relations in all spheres, as well as the further improvement of cooperation within the Union State,” it said, according to a published telegram by TASS.
“My opinion is that Lukashenko will extract some support from Putin and eventually bring back the mercenaries,” the Insider source said.
