Before the US elections, China prepares for a difficult journey, a potential change

(Reuters) – With bilateral ties in freefall, Beijing is preparing for more turmoil in the run-up to the US election in November, and the possibility that a Joe Biden presidency presents an opportunity to avoid a deeper conflict.

Washington’s demand this week that China close its Houston consulate in 72 hours angered Beijing and forced a retaliatory order to close the U.S. consulate in Chengdu.

As usual, China did not directly criticize President Donald Trump, who often talks about his personal friendship with President Xi Jinping, but in caustic editorials, the state media portrayed the move as an electoral gambit.

Some Chinese government and military hawks see four more years of Trump as an opportunity to accelerate China’s rise. Many in China have gained confidence in his position as they watch his tumultuous presidency, including his handling of Covid-19.

But coupled with exasperation over Trump’s unpredictability and penchant for tariffs, and cautious hostility from Washington on multiple fronts, concern grows over the risk of a more acute confrontation, according to six Chinese officials and people linked to the leadership.

Frequent criticism of “communist” China and its ruling Communist Party, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, used the word 27 times in a speech on Thursday that called China’s more assertive approach the “mission of our time,” also irritates in Beijing.

Caught off guard by Trump’s 2016 victory, China sent groups of government experts to begin preparing reports on the US election and public sentiment, with a focus on Democratic challenger Biden and his policies, sources said. familiar with the matter.

“There are no illusions about restoring relations to the old days, but a new president at least provides an opportunity to restore relations,” said a Chinese official, who declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter. “After all You cannot have a worse relationship than the current one, ”he said.

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The Trump administration has said its harshest line in China is justified by what Pompeo and others have described as a more authoritarian turn by Beijing, theft of intellectual property and its military ambitions in the South China Sea, and more. there.

Being tough on China is now the bipartisan stance of noncompliance in the United States, and a Biden administration is expected to be more likely to join allies in confronting Beijing and adopting a tougher line on human rights.

But a Biden presidency could be more lean toward compromise, from a new “position of American strength,” as campaign experts put it, amid renewed investment in America’s competitiveness, innovation, and infrastructure.

“The Chinese seem to have no illusions that a Biden victory would reverse Washington’s view of China, but will likely move closer to dialogue with a new administration,” said Daniel Russel, the chief diplomat for East Asia under President Barack Obama and early in the Trump administration.

Russel does not have a formal role in the Biden campaign, but is close to the candidate’s foreign policy advisers.

Both the Biden and Trump campaigns say China is supporting the other.

Tim Murtaugh, director of communications for Trump 2020, said China is undoubtedly lobbying for Biden. “He has a history of appeasing them and promoting their interests throughout his 47 years in Washington,” Murtaugh told Reuters. Andrew Bates, a spokesman for the Biden campaign, said China has had a wrestling match under Trump, calling him “the weakest president in US history with respect to China.”

With bilateral relations plummeting, some officials and analysts in Beijing said that China’s overall focus in the coming months will be to try to handle tensions with Washington and retaliate only when necessary. That clenching of teeth has been reflected in relatively muted responses to recent United States movements, such as his statement that Beijing’s South China Sea claims are illegal. Beijing’s move to close the Chengdu consulate was proportional, and China has continued to urge Washington to reconsider the expulsion from Houston.

However, Beijing is unlikely to make significant openings for dialogue, given what it sees as the futility of engagement in a campaign season when anti-China sentiment is soaring.

“China is angry at Trump for his criticism of China and for his action to impose sanctions on China,” said Shi Yinhong, an adviser to the Chinese cabinet and a professor at Beijing Renmin University.

“Furthermore, the Chinese feel that their political position at home appears to have been shaken, so their value has decreased.”