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“A second confinement can be avoided if the population accepts restrictions such as hygiene and keeping their distance, but also refrains as far as possible from risky activities that are now known, such as private parties.”
This is the conclusion of complexity researcher Peter Klimek in an analysis published Tuesday. To achieve this, politicians should “work with education, transparency and recommendations rather than threats and prohibitions.”
In the “Policy Brief”, Klimek examined how critical the current situation is for the crown in Austria and what action is needed, based on the statistical modeling and analysis of the Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH).
The scientist emphasizes that an uncontrolled spread of Covid-19 can still lead to an overload of the healthcare system, especially when it comes to the capacity of intensive care beds. “We would get to this point with around 4,700 to 7,800 new infections a day,” Klimek said.
Closing of shops and bars
With around 900 cases per day on an average of 14 days, this is still a long way off. However, that growth cannot be ruled out in a few weeks or months, Klimek emphasizes, referring to other countries or regions such as Israel or Madrid. In this context, it also refers to the increase in activities in closed rooms in the coming months, thus increasing the risk of sudden increases in infections.
The analysis also includes the results of a statistical study conducted by the CSH of 54,000 corona measurements that were taken in more than 200 countries in March and April. The most effective measures identified here were the prohibition of all activities in which people in small groups have close long-term contact with each other, that is, the closure of shops, bars, offices and schools (especially at the school levels higher).
However, much less drastic measures are almost as effective, according to Klimek. Strengthening the health system, for example, separating infected and uninfected patients, as well as protecting hospitals and nursing homes, canceling important events, travel restrictions and financial support for vulnerable population groups, for example, so that the Precarious workers can isolate themselves when symptoms occur, allowing and paying is also highly effective.
A single measure is not enough
But there is no “egg-laying woolly milking sow.” No single measure is sufficient to slow down the infection process, even the most effective can only be attributed to a reduction in the spread of the virus of a maximum of around 20 percent.
“In view of such results, it is even more surprising that a 20 percent reduction in infections simply by wearing mouth-nasal protection is not considered very effective in some places,” Klimek explained, also referring to the “pseudoscientist” not only use in Austria Fight of faith “for the necessary measures.
The scientist continues to believe that a combination of measures adapted to the region is necessary to keep the epidemic under control. As a cornerstone of such a combination, he cites the basic rules of conduct (hygiene, distance, mask in closed and crowded places), as well as the testing, tracking and isolation of suspected cases.
As soon as one is overwhelmed by the latter, there is a particular risk of so-called super-propagation events, such as events with many people in a confined space. “Measures to restrict private celebrations and similar events must therefore take precedence, before widespread curfews or school closures are considered,” the researcher said.
To successfully combat the epidemic, he considers necessary “a national alliance”, “here neither the population can ‘clean’ itself of politics, nor the politics of the population.”
Unlimited scientific consensus on the need for corona measures is not expected, also due to political interests, Klimek explained. However, science as a whole can be trusted.
“By far the overwhelming majority of scientific findings clearly state that there is no need to be alarmed when the number of cases increases marginally, nor should one think about allowing the epidemic to rage out of control.”
