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Lukashenko’s opponents organize daily protests across the country. They want to prevent the 66-year-old from starting his sixth term on November 9. The democracy movement insists that Svetlana Tichanovskaya, who was hailed by many as the winner of the August 9 presidential election, take office. An overview of the situation in the Minsk power struggle:
How is the situation in Belarus?
On the one hand, Lukashenko takes his followers to the streets with the red and green state flag. They stay there as ordered and tell the cameras of state television that they are for him and for peace and stability. Those who oppose him frequently lose their jobs in the civil service. Above all, Lukashenko has the security apparatus with the police, the army and the secret service behind him. On the other hand, more and more people are turning their backs on it, many professional athletes for example, but also cultural workers, police officers and, more recently, students. The movement for democracy tries to create political structures together with protests to be able to act in case of inauguration.
Will the opponents succeed in seizing power? Or can Lukashenko hold out?
The freedom movement has created a coordinating council with representatives of civil society, with more than 4,000 members. Presidium member Maria Kolesnikova exudes great optimism that the peaceful revolution will be victorious in the end. The 38-year-old assumes that it will be a long process because a dictatorship will not simply disappear after 26 years. The movement sees Tichanovskaya as the winner of the presidential elections. The 37-year-old appears repeatedly on the international stage since her exile in the EU country, Lithuania. Before the UN Security Council, she only asked for support on Friday. But Lukashenko sees himself firmly in the saddle so far, mostly thanks to Russia’s support.
What change can protests bring about in these circumstances? Or do they find nothing?
For many people, the protests are a way out of their anger over controversial elections and bloody police violence against peaceful people. But they are also brought daily by the many new arrests, people show solidarity with jailed journalists and students. It is true that Lukashenko spoke for the first time of dialogue and necessary changes under the pressure of the ever-new mass protests in Sunday’s demonstrations. So far, however, it has responded mainly with new repression.
The opposition Kolesnikova points out that for the first time members of the government also went to the factories to speak with the strikers. She believes that the protests will not go away and that more and more people are switching sides. “There is no going back,” she says, as do many experts. However, it is also criticized that the demonstrations are too tame. Critics say it might be necessary to raid public buildings to get anything done. Kolesnikova says that Lukashenko will be in office until November 9 and only then will he be in office illegally.
Who are the organizers of the protests? And are they, as Lukashenko claims, controlled from abroad?
Anyone who talks to people on the street quickly realizes that entire strata of the population are electrified here. Many enthusiastically carry the historic white, red and white flags. Calls for freedom are heard. The opponent Kolesnikova denies that there is money from abroad. “We see the protests not only in Minsk, but in cities and towns,” he says. People are creative and, above all, they organize themselves, find out where the campaigns are going through the news channels of the social network Telegram. The Nexta Live channel alone, for example, operated by a young Belarusian from Poland, has more than two million subscribers. Telegram founder Pavel Durov had also stated that he would support the protests.
Will the protests be radicalized or will the situation escalate?
There is great fear in the democracy movement that it could lead to a provocation, a possibly organized incident, which would then set off a chain reaction of violence. Hundreds of people were injured and thousands were arrested in the first three days after the elections. According to the opposition, at least five people died. Many are missing. A bloody escalation is possible. There is also a threat from Russia to send troops to support Lukashenko if protesters seize government buildings or desecrate monuments. People on the street emphasize, however, that they want to bring about change through the pressure of peaceful protests, just like in the GDR.
The opposition wanted to destroy the financial base of the power apparatus through strikes in the public administration. He will be successful?
The strikes are worrying the state. Many people also simply assume an attitude of internal refusal to work. All of this slows down processes. Already significant economic problems are expected to worsen and Lukashenko will come under additional pressure. IT companies complain about internet crashes, the first go. Several companies no longer advertise on state television to avoid funding propaganda. The director of the business association, Vladimir Karjagin, expects bloodshed from skilled workers traveling abroad. There is the risk of a massive recession and ultimately a social upheaval, he warns.
