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Based on initial information, the ÖVP is likely to achieve more than 20 percent with the bottom line. Around 318,000 votes were likely cast outside of polling stations, a record.
Postal voters again cause surprises in the election of the Vienna city council, but they do not change anything decisive. The ÖVP and especially the Greens benefit a lot this time from the vote card count (still ongoing), the ÖVP should get more than 20 percent and the Greens with 15 percent. However, the SPÖ result is likely to be reduced and the FPÖ to break even further. It will likely rank fifth behind NEOS, based on an adapted extrapolation of the ARGE elections. So far, the ÖVP with the voting card forecast was 18.8 percent, ahead of the Greens with 14 percent and second behind the SPÖ with 42.1 percent.
The record number of mail-in voters (around 318,000 votes likely to have been cast outside of polling stations) fell back to previous patterns. The SPÖ, which has benefited mainly from postal voting in recent years, this time will fare worse overall, including on voting cards, than the 418,000 voters at the polls on Sunday: it reached 43.1 percent (plus 3 , 5), ultimately, it should be noisy. The ARGE extrapolation will be 41.6 percent and, therefore, 47 mandates. Which, of course, is still an increase compared to 39.6 percent and the 44 terms of 2015.
The ÖVP should now reach the 20 mark: the extrapolation forecasts 20.3 percent, 11.1 percentage points more than in 2015, and therefore three times more terms than before, that is, 21. Sunday’s result it was only 18.5 percent.
Greens are the ones who benefit the most
The Greens will benefit even more from postal voters: with 15 percent (16 terms), they are likely to achieve the best Green Vienna result, and in the future they will have 16 (previously 10) city councilors. On Sunday night, 12.2 percent of the polls didn’t look like it.
But the “third field” is even deeper: according to extrapolations, the FPÖ should ultimately be content with just 7.2 percent (after 8.9 percent at the polls), a drop of 23.6 points. percentage compared to the 2015 record of 30.8 percent. The blue municipal council is expected to be reduced from 34 to eight terms. Former FPÖ chief Heinz-Christian Strache did not even make it to the local council, and overall he will remain even clearer (with an expected 3.3 percent) below the five percent hurdle than on Sunday (with a 4 , 3 percent) Percentage) seemed.
Neo are also gaining ground
Neoes earn a little more through postal vote: 7.6 percent expected the ARGE elections for them, and with that they snatch fourth place from FPÖ. In the future, they can hold eight seats on the municipal council (instead of the previous five).
And Neos can look forward to a new role: because they will be able to nominate their first member of the Federal Council and, if the extrapolation of the mandate is correct, they will tip the balance there. According to the adapted calculation, the opposition of the Federal Council SPÖ and FPÖ will only have the same number of terms as the federal coalition parties ÖVP and Greens, that is, 30 each.
Because the SPÖ should now have to do without a Federal Council, the FPÖ three, while the ÖVP (plus two) and yet the Greens (one) get some. According to original projections, the SPÖ and the Greens would have remained stable, meaning that Turquoise-Green would have 29 seats in the State House in the future, but the Red-Blue opposition would have 31.
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