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How strong is the SPÖ? Does the short bonus work for the ÖVP? How much is the FPÖ losing? And does HC Strache come in?
In Vienna, almost 1,500 polling stations opened their doors at 7 am. A total of about 1.36 million Viennese are called to elect a new municipal council or state parliament, as well as district representatives. The surveys are about the coronavirus pandemic, which also required extensive security measures. You can vote until 5 pm That is the time all polling stations are open. However, many city dwellers have already voted.
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Polling stations close at 5 p.m. First screenings are expected around 6 p.m. Preliminary overall result (municipal council election) should be available between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. Already fixed amount is open: given number record of voting cards, which may not all be counted until Tuesday, the result could change significantly.
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The scenarios: who wins, who loses
SPÖ: 39.5 to 45.0% – Ludwig trembles: Can the red base vote?
Even before the election results, Michael Ludwig is hands down the big winner: his election campaign was flawless, his election campaign machinery the best. Red officials already dream of a result “well beyond 40%” and a “Doskozil effect”. In fact, Ludwig could already reach the “absolute” with 46.5% (the result of Doskozil). With each result higher than 40%, Ludwig would be the new “Kaiser” of Vienna and, in the future, also the real “boss” of the SPÖ.
Ludwig himself and his inner circle are trembling against the outcome of the election; Too many factors could cloud his electoral triumph: many older SPÖ voters fear a corona infection in the electoral bar and are considering it, in view of an already certain victory for Ludwig – Stay home. At the same time, many green voters, who helped Häupl triumph against Strache in 2015, were not able to vote red this time, but green in view of some success from Ludwig and the lack of blue danger to keep the Greens in the coalition.
Within the SPÖ, it is criticized that the Reds barely used the last week of the election campaign for publicity and appearances, and thus possibly stopped the mobilization of the Red base.
Now it all depends on how well the “Burgamasta bonus” works for Ludwig and how well the SPÖ has mobilized the votes by mail. An overwhelming majority of postal voters may change the SPÖ result by up to 45% by Tuesday …
ÖVP: 16.0 to 21.0%: Blümel awaits the short bonus in Vienna
The ÖVP started the Vienna election campaign with fabulous poll values of up to 24%, which the ÖVP internally never wanted to believe anyway.
Due to a rather weak election campaign and constant opposition fire on the finance minister, the ÖVP’s fabled value has recently melted to a more realistic 18-19%. That would also mean a victory for the ÖVP, because the Turks would double their result in the last elections in Vienna (almost 9%).
In truth, no one can evaluate the outcome of the ÖVP: if the Kurz bond (56% positively rate the Kurz government) in the Vienna elections, up to 22% are possible as a surprise.
If, on the other hand, there is a first protest vote against the finance minister’s crown policy and also a Ludwig mayor’s bonus for ÖVP voters, the turquoise can drop as much as 16%.
Blümel himself did a great job in the election campaign: he had to face the triple burden of finance minister plus government coordinator plus lead candidate. Now he would like to resign as finance minister and go to Vienna as deputy mayor and finance councilor. For this, the ÖVP clearly needs more than 20%; Ludwig will probably only take turquoise as a new partner if there is a mega-pick hit. And even then he definitely doesn’t want Blümel in town hall, but his close friend and president of the Chamber of Commerce, Ruck.
FPÖ: 10.0 to 15.0%: The FPÖ wants to score with a “blue eye” today
The loser in the elections is already clear today: it is the FPÖ, which comes from more than 30% in the last elections in Vienna and is fighting to survive in Ibiza. The question for today’s blues is: do they lose with shame or with respect …
Dominik Nepp, who started this election campaign in Vienna with a devastating 7% in the polls, has done well. Together with his veteran Harald Vilimsky, he ran the most polarizing electoral campaign, but also technically the best. According to polls, he was the clear winner of countless television duels alongside Ludwig. And on Friday, against all Corona rules, he pulled off the traditional final rally at the Viktor-Adler-Markt to mobilize potential FPÖ voters with all his might.
In polls, the FPÖ recently was only 9-11%. But no one knows if the rate of confessors among FPÖ voters was that low again after Ibiza.
For the FPÖ, any result higher than 12% would be a success. She would especially cheer tonight if the “mortal enemy” HC Strache does not make it to the town hall.
GREEN: 10.0 to 15.0%: a green tragedy with a possible happy ending
When the Greens fell to 12% in the last Vienna city council election, then-top candidate Maria Vassilakou burst into tears and still saved the city council coalition. This time, the green result is completely unpredictable. On the one hand, according to all political experts, there are up to 25% potential Green voters in Vienna, of which 20% voted for the Greens in the NR elections. On the other hand, the green lead candidate Birgit Hebein’s election campaign presentation was so terribly bad that some members of the Green Party, which was divided into Fundis and Realos, fear a 10% debacle.
Actually, given the disastrous 12% last time, the Greens can only win today. Any result below 12% would be a disaster, but a value of 15% or more, given the green environment in big cities, is quite possible.
The Greens will need a clear plus in the result if they want to remain in the city council coalition.
TEAM HC: 3.0 to 7.0% – Strache fights like a lion to survive
The most watched medium in this election campaign was the brash outsider: in the style of Donald Trump, HC Strache experienced an election campaign orgy like no other candidate before him. More than 100,000 articles, more than 100 million clicks in total on the Internet; of course: 92% of all reports were negative.
Tonight, therefore, we will learn a lesson in media politics: use such intense negative reports for the “victim” (as HC sees himself) and, in view of the media overdose of recent weeks, Strache creates a sensation up to 7% 10% and more)? Or was Strache’s image so ruined by media condemnation that even “prank voters” no longer bother him today?
Now it’s about him: If Strache moves into town hall with more than 5%, he will also take off nationally and celebrate his political comeback. If it stays below 5%, your political career is probably over for good.
It also depends on whether “veteran” Strache worked so perfectly with his election campaign professionals Rumpold and Höbarth on the postal ballot level that he was the winner on Tuesday night. To do this, you actually need at least 20,000 postal votes …
NEOS: 6.0 to 9.0%: pink hope for the red coalition bed
Neos are usually the most predictable of all games. Your survey scores (most recently 7 to 8%) almost always agree with the result. This time, of course, the Neos are the game with the best shot.
Above all, Wiederkehr has made an ingenious move: he has offered the Reds as a new coalition partner. This brought Neos voters, who are usually quite lethargic at the end, into a final frame of mind. Suddenly it is possible that liberal and bourgeois voters today vote for Neos to expel the Greens from the town hall.
In fact, the Neos need more than 8% today to win a city council and thus get into the coalition race. But if they can increase to more than 8%, then Christoph “what’s his name?” You can suddenly become the sensation of this choice of Vienna as deputy mayor.
oe24 reports LIVE on Sunday’s exciting elections
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