The virus is not a disaster in Africa.

“If you stop fighting malaria, the number of cases will skyrocket in six to twelve months,” says malaria expert Christian Lengeler.

Legnan Koula / EPA

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the new corona virus has claimed more than 100,000 lives in Europe and less than 1,000 in Africa. Do you trust the numbers?

No, the information from Africa cannot be correct. 1,000 deaths and around 20,000 infections reported officially, that’s almost the same as in Switzerland, where there are hundreds of people.

Most diseases are reported in South Africa, Algeria, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, and Ghana. Is there an explanation for this?

It is the countries that test and try to collect the case numbers correctly. But even in these countries, perhaps with the exception of South Africa, the numbers are not reliable.

Africa is a great continent with more than 50 countries. Which regions are most at risk from the corona pandemic?

It is difficult to say without statistics. But one thing is clear: The pandemic reached Africa in two ways. On the one hand, on China, with which many African countries maintain a strong exchange. The second route was from Italy and France to Africa. After that, the virus spread to the mainland.

Do you see reasons why the pandemic could not affect Africa so badly, or do you expect a catastrophe to the contrary?

A disaster is unlikely to occur. But I have anecdotal evidence of this, because as I said, there is no reliable data. From many conversations I have had in the past days and weeks, I know that hospitals are not overloaded anywhere. This suggests that the death rate is likely to be relatively low.

Does this have to do with the fact that in many countries society is much younger than in Europe?

That has to do with it. In Switzerland, those over 65 make up 20 percent of the population, in Africa only 2 percent. Therefore, only a very small proportion of people are at high risk of complications from Covid 19.

Could climatic reasons also save Africa from the worst?

That is discussed. Unfortunately, there is little evidence that this is true. It is more important that comparatively few people in Africa have chronic diseases like diabetes or high blood pressure.

However, many people are malnourished and have coinfections. Furthermore, the health system is in a desolate condition in many places. . .

Malnutrition favors a serious course of the disease, and weakness in the health system is also an important risk factor. There are probably no more than 500 fans in all of Africa. If the number of serious cases were to increase rapidly, the situation would very quickly be catastrophic.

But don’t you expect it?

The virus has been detectable in Africa for a month. Therefore, there must be hundreds of thousands of undetected cases. And we don’t see any rush to hospitals so far. This gives me hope that there will be no catastrophe.

How tense is the situation in federal states and hospitals?

Very tense. But not because healthcare workers have to care for many patients. But because many health centers have been closed.

Why is that?

I cannot put myself in the mind of the ministers of health. But I suspect this is to protect staff and other patients from infection. Also, some countries like Uganda have had a blockade. Since then, hospital staff have had great trouble getting to the hospital. People are detained on the street and sent back home. It is quite complicated at times.

Are there enough protective masks and protective clothing for healthcare workers?

Until now, there was little. In recent days, however, countries and their partners have begun to acquire more material. However, the protection of those who treat them is not yet optimal.

Is the population sufficiently informed about Covid-19?

Unfortunately not. There are many false rumors circulating about the dangerousness of the infection. Furthermore, the communication strategy of many governments is not very convincing. Furthermore, very few cases are officially reported. This further weakens the credibility of the authorities.

In addition to Covid-19, there are many other pressing health problems in Africa. What influence does the current pandemic have on these thematic areas?

That is the true catastrophe looming in Africa. If you close health centers for fear of Covid-19 and stop treating cases of malaria, tuberculosis or HIV, and women who need a cesarean section can no longer operate, you will quickly have many deaths.

What consequences do you expect in your area of ​​malaria control?

We use mathematical models to calculate what could happen if the planned mosquito nets to prevent malaria were not carried out this year in Africa. Or if the options for treating severe cases of malaria are reduced by 50 percent, which is a realistic scenario. . .

So, what are you waiting for?

If both cases occur, we would have to expect 16 percent more malaria cases and 26 percent more malaria-related deaths. That equates to 36 million additional illnesses and more than 100,000 additional deaths, especially in young children.

Some might wonder how urgently the Covid-19 problem compares to other health problems in Africa.

There are these voices. Because unlike other health risks, Covid-19 is a relatively minor problem in Africa.

Do you expect Covid-19 to destroy important medical advances on the African continent?

Unfortunately, this is to be feared. Because in the last twenty years we have had tremendous success with HIV, tuberculosis and malaria. We were able to suppress all three diseases so far that infant mortality fell by two-thirds during this period. If the Covid 19 pandemic continues, this progress could be destroyed. This is easily possible, especially with malaria. Because this disease has enormous transferability.

Is it bigger than the current pandemic?

With Covid-19, an ill person infects an average of 2 to 3 people without protective measures. With malaria, the number of mosquitoes is 100. This means that if you stop fighting malaria, the number of cases will skyrocket within six to twelve months.

How can such collateral damage be prevented?

Governments not only need to implement safeguards for Covid-19, but they must also make health centers work the way they need. In addition, sick people should be encouraged to go to centers to receive the necessary treatment.

We know the problem of collateral damage from the Ebola crisis, which lasted from 2014 to 2016 in West Africa. How bad was it back then?

The Ebola virus killed about 10,000 people directly and another two or three times more indirectly.

To curb the spread of Sars-CoV-2, many countries have imposed curfews: can it be enforced in poor areas and slums?

The honest answer is: no. Because many people starve when they can no longer go outside and generate income. And sick people need money for their medications.

The Covid 19 pandemic shows once again that pathogens do not stop at the borders of individual countries. Global health is also used in this context. Is this concept strengthened with current events?

Clearly we all see that what happens in China or Japan can quickly have serious consequences for us in Europe. This knowledge requires well-coordinated international cooperation and effective preventive measures.

How well has the collaboration with Covid-19 worked so far?

Much better than previous pandemics. The Chinese were not 100 percent open and transparent, but they reported very early and well. They also invested a huge amount in research into the disease and immediately shared the new knowledge with other countries. Collaboration between public health experts and research is also unique and shows the way to the future.