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For the IHS there is “still great uncertainty about the future course of the pandemic.” For the current forecast, it is assumed that there will not be a new large-scale outbreak. The number of infections, which has been on the rise since the summer, and associated containment measures are likely to weigh on the economy in mid-2021, leading to fear.
Worldwide decline
For world trade, the IHS expects a decline of 8.5 percent this year and an increase of 5.5 percent in 2021. Austria’s export markets are likely to contract 9.0 percent this year and grow 5.5 percent in 2021. The Wifo considers that this year’s national exports will be 12.4 percent lower, the IHS forecasts a decrease of 9.6 percent; for exports of pure goods, it is -10.7 and -8.5 percent.
Wifo also expects a stronger drop in imports with 10.6 percent (IHS only -7.9 percent) and in goods imports -9.2 percent (IHS -7.3 percent). The institutes agree that exports will increase between six and six and a half percent in 2021 and imports by almost six percent.
