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Therefore, it is unlikely that the planned continuation of the status quo, and that’s all, is not enough to not slide into a new mega wave like the one we had in November. Even then, the government had waited a long time to impose a strict blockade. At the height of this second wave, we finally had around 9,000 new infections a day and overloaded intensive care units. Unlike then, it could now be that higher vaccination coverage of risk groups with the same high number of infections reduces the impact on intensive care beds and deaths. So far this has been only marginally the case. Now there is a real and risky race between the confinement and the vaccination.
The envisaged measures were not massive restrictions and were fully understandable. On the one hand, it can be observed that children and adolescents currently present the highest incidences. They usually have no symptoms, so they pose a significant risk of infection. Another week of vacation after Easter as a breakwater would not have greatly impaired learning success or resulted in a completely impossible childcare situation. On the other hand, the net for the fishing of symptom-free virus carriers would have been tightly condensed by an obligation of proof in the retail trade. You only go to the hairdresser every two weeks, and almost nothing to go skiing.
Further regionalization is correct: the crisis summit in the east to tackle the problem of intensive care beds is a first step. And if there were countries with better values again, this should also relax more quickly. But the current figures (see the table to the right) do not currently provide this for any other federal state except Vorarlberg. In Carinthia, which ranks second, the incidence is almost three times higher than in Ländle.
What happens next: We may have to put up with higher vaccination coverage and continue as before. However, another and hopefully the last lockdown is more likely in mid-April. Even in Israel, despite the advantage of vaccination, it could not be avoided.
Comments to: [email protected] / twitter: @richardgrasl
