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The countdown has begun: in a month, on October 11, Vienna will elect a new municipal council and its district representatives. According to polls, Michael Ludwig should be confirmed in his office as mayor by the SPÖ. According to opinion pollsters, the SPÖ has an agreement between 39 and 40 per cent and would therefore roughly repeat the result of 2015, when 39.6 per cent of the vote was received.
The ÖVP is likely to become the new second force in Vienna. If he pushes the 20 percent forecast, he would more than double his result from the last elections (9.2 percent) and thus surpass not only the Greens, but also the FPÖ. The latter is likely to face a colossal collapse: from just under 31 percent in 2015 to nearly double-digit results in 2020. The Greens, on the other hand, are trading between 15 and 16 percent, which would mean a nice increase compared to 11.8 percent in 2015. Neos are likely to re-enter the local council at seven percent and increase slightly compared to 2015 (6.2 percent). It is questionable whether former FPÖ boss Heinz-Christian Strache with his newly founded team can do the same. Polls see it just above or below the five percent threshold.
Possible partners
Since Ludwig has ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ several times, the SPÖ only had two possible coalition partners after the elections. Either it continues the previous coalition with the Greens or it merges with the ÖVP, as it did from 1945 to 1973 and from 1996 to 2001.
The red-green government cooperation in Vienna proceeded largely without much friction. Recently, however, the harmony between the two coalition partners has been clouded. Transportation projects like the more or less car-free urban center caused dissonance here.
Blümel, on the other hand, has recently been suppressed with too harsh criticism of Vienna. Other ÖVP ministers, such as Karl Nehammer (Interior), were much more active in this regard.
The alternative scenario, in which the ÖVP teams up with the Greens and Neos to overthrow the SPÖ, has no majority based on the current state of the poll. Furthermore, Neos boss Christoph Wiederkehr has ruled out a coalition with the ÖVP for the “Wiener Zeitung”.
The race for district leaders should be particularly exciting in this Vienna election. In all districts in the city center (with the exception of the city, where the ÖVP traditionally wins) there is a violent three-way battle between the SPÖ, the Greens and the ÖVP. The same applies to the 18th arrondissement, in which the Greens replaced the ÖVP in 2015. The SPÖ should return to Simmering, which turned blue in 2015, a color that should be delayed there, as in Vienna in general. The ÖVP is likely to again keep its three main districts, City, Hietzing and Döbling.
Vote for party leaders
In any case, one thing is already certain: in the elections of October 11, all the main candidates of the parties of the city council will begin to occupy this position for the first time. Therefore, the vote is also a vote on the new party leaders.
The SPÖ’s leading candidate is naturally the party chairman and mayor Michael Ludwig. In 2018 he succeeded Michael Häupl.
The Wiener Grünen’s top candidate, Councilor Birgit Hebein, was elected top candidate in February. Maria Vassilakou’s successor is, unlike her predecessor, also party leader. This function did not previously exist in the Vienna party.
The presence of the FPÖ holder was a bit unexpected. Because the non-incumbent vice mayor, Dominik Nepp, took over the scepter after the resignation of Heinz-Christian Strache, who was also the president of the Viennese FPÖ, due to Ibiza. The ÖVP list is headed by party leader Gernot Blümel. He replaced the unfortunate president Manfred Juraczka. Christoph Wiederkehr also tops the Neos list for the first time. The former president of the capital Pink, Beate Meinl-Reisinger, turned her back on local politics in 2018. She replaced Matthias Strolz at the head of the federal government and is now a member of the National Council. Finally there is Heinz-Christian Strache. His team HC Strache was founded at the end of 2019 by three renegade blue leaders.(aum)
