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More than four years ago, the majority of British people voted to leave the EU. The Brexit negotiations are now in a decisive phase, with many signs that London and Brussels will be left without a trade deal at the start of the new year. Economists agree that this would be a disaster, especially for the UK economy.
The question arises of how the island’s population thinks vis-a-vis the mainland about Brexit. Do you regret the decision you made four years ago? The answer is clearly “no,” said pollster and politics professor Roger Mortimore. Since the 2016 referendum, only a few have changed their basic attitude towards leaving the EU. “Opinions have only hardened.”
Will of the British Government
justify
Brexit is in principle the second most important political issue for the British after the Corona crisis, even if there was little media coverage at times. This is what the Ipsos Mori survey institute recorded. As a result, many other things that normally concerned people, such as crime in the country, have taken a back seat.
For Mortimore, this also means that the British government will not be able to “hide” behind the pandemic, but will have to take responsibility for “what it has achieved in terms of Brexit.” What then will be important for the next elections.
Almost everyone who spoke out in favor of leaving the EU four years ago continues to support Brexit: “They are following the negotiations and blaming the EU and not the British government for making sure the talks go nowhere,” Mortimore said. . If Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government played its cards right, it would still have “solid political support for what it is doing.”
However, the political scientist assumes that there is currently a majority against Brexit. Support for exiting the EU in polls also depends on the question you ask, the expert said. “In the polls that I have seen, the ‘Remain’ side is in the forefront, but barely, between 53 and 47 percent, which is almost exactly what the polls said on the day of the referendum. That among the 53 percent there are many who ultimately they would not go to vote, while 47 percent might be more motivated to vote. “
If you ask the question a little differently and want to know from people what would be the ideal outcome of the current situation from their point of view – “do they want a deal, if they don’t want a deal or if they want to rejoin the EU “- so Many” followers “are not in favor of canceling Brexit. “Only about half of them would get Brexit back if they could. The rest, probably because they want to respect the democratic vote, would rather make the most of the decision and want a smooth Brexit than rejoin the EU.” Basically we don’t know what would happen if there was a second referendum, but it still looks like it’s close. “
If talks between the EU and London on a trade pact fail, Mortimore Johnson believes this should not be too politically expensive, at least in the short term. Because the prime minister still has solid support. But: “It’s not that many people want to leave without a deal. Ideally, they would like to have some kind of deal.” However, a significant part of the British only want a deal if the UK does not have to make major concessions.
Economic arguments don’t count
It doesn’t help, Mortimore said, if the EU thinks the economic arguments will lead Brexiters to change their minds. “Very few people who voted for Brexit believed that it would contribute a lot financially. Many accepted that it could hurt financially, but they still wanted to.”
Similarly, Brexit advocates may not understand those who voted to stay in the EU. “They do not realize that it was a rational decision and something that they considered good for them and for the country.” Therefore, many “graduates” also suspected unfair motives among EU supporters.(what / red.)
