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Now could be November, after all. Many deadlines have been postponed in Brexit negotiations in recent years. And also at the EU summit in Brussels, which started on Thursday afternoon, there was room for time. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had walked away from the ultimatum he had set for the day. The EU, in turn, found that an agreement on a trade deal between the Union and Britain would not necessarily be necessary by the end of October, but would also be possible in mid-November.
It would be “sporty”, as it is called in EU Commission circles, but doable. This applies especially if the treaty only requires ratification at EU level by the European Parliament, but not by the national chambers of representatives of the 27 EU countries. In any case, the heads of state and government “invite the EU chief negotiator to continue negotiations in the coming weeks and ask the United Kingdom to take the necessary measures for a possible agreement,” the Reuters news agency quoted in the draft of the final two-day document. Summit.
Of course, there are still some obstacles to overcome on the way to a settlement. One of them is fishing rights, which have become a very political issue. There is a dispute over catch quotas and whether they should be negotiated annually. Without an agreement with Great Britain, EU fishermen would be excluded from British waters.
“Toxic mixture”
One of the biggest losers in a “no deal” scenario would be the kingdom itself: there would be tariffs and other trade barriers, probably also traffic jams due to border controls. Empty shelves in supermarkets and pharmacies are also a horror. The crown pandemic, which hit Britain massively, would only make the situation worse.
So Brexit and Covid-19 would result in a “toxic mix,” write John Springford and Tomas Hirst in a recent article for the London-based CER (Center for European Reform) think tank. If the kingdom leaves the EU domestic market, including the customs union, by the end of the year, import costs will increase and the purchasing power of British households will decline, the authors argue. On the contrary, the demand for British products on the mainland will decline, leading to the loss of jobs on the island in industries that are highly dependent on exports. All this with general unemployment rates on the rise and a contracting economy. In the second quarter, the economy collapsed by 20 percent.
But the London government faces not only economic but also political challenges. Nothing less than the unity of the kingdom is at stake. If the island were to exit the internal market without a trade pact, that would have an impact on Scotland.
There, popular support for independence from Great Britain has now risen to a record high. According to a poll by the Ipsos Mori polling institute, 58 percent of people were in favor of that step. In the last ballot in 2014, 55 per cent of Scots voted to remain in the Kingdom.
The poll also showed high approval ratings for Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her Scottish National Party (SNP). That could give them a boost in the May parliamentary elections, which in turn could increase the likelihood of another independence referendum. However, this would require approval in London.
Sturgeon himself is already campaigning in the EU to sympathize with a detachment from Scotland. In a guest article in the daily “Die Welt”, he expressed his conviction that “the best future for our country as an independent nation lies within the EU.” He strongly criticizes the British government: leaving the EU without a deal “would be foolish even in normal times.” However, in the midst of a pandemic, it is “completely irresponsible.” (czar)
Von der Leyen leaves the summit early
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen left the summit early Thursday due to a positive case of coronavirus in her office. “I have just been informed that an employee in my office tested positive for Covid-19 in the morning. My test result was negative,” von der Leyen said on Twitter. However, as a precaution, he immediately leaves the European Council to isolate himself.
