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Democrats protested angrily: Get a successor to the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, now and regardless of the outcome of the November election? Republicans shouldn’t try that. Not least, Joe Biden, Barack Obama and others argued, because in 2016 Republican senators established the principle that Supreme Court justice positions should not be filled in an election year.
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There is no longer any doubt that Donald Trump and his party will ignore the Democratic protests. The president wants to announce his candidate on Saturday. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wants to vote on Trump’s proposal this year, even if Trump loses the November 3 election. What happens now? Answers to the most important questions.
What is the procedure for appointing a judge?
Under the constitution, justices of the Supreme Court are appointed by the President of the United States “with the advice and consent” of the Senate. So he nominates a candidate, the Senate then has to confirm it with a simple majority (read more here).
Who will be Trump’s candidate?
Trump has submitted several lists of potential Supreme Court candidates in the past, most recently in early September. After Ginsburg’s death, he gradually narrowed the circle: First, he announced that he wanted to nominate a woman. He then announced that five candidates had made the shortlist.
The favorite is Federal Judge Amy Coney Barrett. With her conservative views on the abortion issue, the devout Catholic is particularly popular with Trump’s conservative religious base. Barbara Lagoa, also a federal judge, is also considered a promising candidate. The attorney from Florida’s “undecided state” would be the first Supreme Court judge with Cuban roots.
Both would give the court a more conservative profile if they became Ginsburg’s successor, even if Lagoa is considered the more moderate of the two contenders. Plus, they could shape the court’s jurisdiction for decades: Barrett, 48, and Lagoa, 52, would be the youngest Supreme Court justices (read more about potential Trump candidates here).
What happens after the nomination?
The President’s nomination is followed by a two-stage process in the Senate: The proposed candidate is first questioned by the House Judiciary Committee. This is followed by a debate and finally a vote in plenary. McConnell, who plays a crucial role as Senate Majority Leader, has announced that he will vote for Trump’s candidate later this year.
If Republicans want to enforce the change before the November 3 election, they would have to act at the express pace. But even after the election, you would have enough time to confirm Trump’s candidate. Votes in early November are not just on the presidency, but also about a third of the 100 seats in the Senate. However, the newly elected senators will only take office in January, when the new Congress is constituted. McConnell and his party friends could help Trump’s candidate succeed in Ginsburg in November or December, even if they lose their Senate majority in the next election.
It is unclear whether they will try to fill the Supreme Court seat before the election, although Republicans on the Justice Committee are already preparing for the fastest possible trial. McConnell recently announced that he would present a schedule for further action as soon as possible after the announcement of Trump’s candidate.
In any case, according to the current state, he clearly has the necessary votes. There are currently 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the House. Republican Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski recently spoke out against filling the vacant seat in an election year. At the moment, however, it appears that every other Republican in the Senate is loyal to the party line. The internal critic of Trump’s party, Mitt Romney, announced that he would not oppose voting on a candidate proposed by Trump, but would instead judge the candidate’s qualifications. Furthermore, in the event of a Trump stalemate, Vice President Mike Pence would have the deciding vote.
How can the Democrats defend themselves?
If the Senate votes before its dissolution in early January and Trump’s nominees get the necessary majority, Democrats will not be able to stop the appeal even if they win an election in November. In particular, the so-called “filibuster” is no longer available to them. This once made it possible for the minority faction to block decisions through endless debates if they were not rejected by at least 60 senators. In the dispute over the appointment of Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch in 2017, Republicans pushed for the abolition of kidnapping tactics for controversial appointments to the highest judicial offices.
In this context, Democrats are discussing a change from prevention to retaliation strategy: the party could increase the number of members of the Supreme Court (read more here).
What is the meaning of the office of judge for the elections?
With a conservative judge, Republicans can mobilize their bases not only in the battle for the White House, but also in the races for Senate seats. Hardly any other issue is as important to the evangelical electorate as the occupation of the Supreme Court.
At the same time, Trump and the Republicans are mobilizing their opponents’ rank and file with their action: Democrats have posted record revenue from election donations since Ginsburg’s death. For swing and exchange voters, however, the judge’s appointment seems to play a less important role.
After all, the occupation of the Supreme Court could be decisive for the elections in a completely different way: Trump has been questioning the legitimacy of the elections for months without any evidence and speaks flatly of alleged electoral fraud by the Democrats. More recently, he refused to promise a peaceful transition after the elections. The question of the result of the vote, Trump whispered, will end before the Supreme Court.
