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secondOlivia has had a turbulent year. A canceled election, violent protests, the resignation of left-wing president Evo Morales, who had ruled for 13 years, and the associated coup allegations made the start. The violent protests and finally the pandemic made it impossible for the Andean state to regain calm. The transitional government failed to unite the country. On the contrary. The rhetoric in recent months has been aggressive, not lenient.
In this context, Bolivians went to the polls last Sunday. A majority voted in favor of the former Minister of Economy, Luis Arce, and therefore in favor of the “Movement to Socialism” (MAS), which has been in power since 2006. It is probable that the hope of a return to economic stability under Morales , in which Arce played an important role, has been decisive for many, especially the poorest voters. Arce’s victory with more than fifty percent of the vote according to projections is not in dispute. On Monday, interim president Jeanine Áñez, runner-up Carlos Mesa and the Organization of American States acknowledged their electoral victory.
Everything is back to normal in Bolivia, apparently. And yet many things are no longer as they were. Above all, the election showed one thing: the “movement toward socialism” exists even without Morales, possibly even better than with him. The former president, who has lived in exile since his resignation a year ago, crossed the curve a year ago by running again. Morales lived from the confrontation and was thus one of the sources of polarization in the country. Even Arce described Morales’ candidacy as a mistake in his campaign last year.
Acre promises growth
Maple promises a more moderate pace. Her career alone speaks for it. The 57-year-old economist from La Paz comes from the middle class, studied in Bolivia and Great Britain, is calm and level-headed. In no way does he resemble the indigenous coca grower Morales, who grew up in simple circumstances. Arce is not a caudillo, but a technocrat. That is unusual for Bolivia and promises a greater willingness to compromise and less populism. The first announcements of the “movement” point in this direction. In an interview, the party’s spokesman said voters did not choose Arce because they wanted the exact same thing again. Arce must demonstrate the ability to reach out to all social groups to overcome hatred.
More careful and more willing to compromise than his predecessor Morales: the elected president of Bolivia, Luis Arce, in an interview in La Paz on Tuesday
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Bild: AP
The responsibility of reuniting the country now rests with Arce. However, it remains questionable whether a renewal of the party and a more moderate pace is possible as long as Morales remains one of the main players. One of the most frequent questions after the elections was whether Morales would now return to Bolivia. Morales himself said it was only a matter of time. Within MAS, most questions elude the question. But there are also clear statements, like those of the young president of the Senate Eva Copa. This is not the time to return from Morales. And it is time for the “movement” to correct mistakes and present a renewed government without the former ministers of Morales’ cabinet.
However, Arce said Morales could help him even without being a member of his new government. Morales has also created breaches within his party. With the electoral victory, these will not be closed, but will possibly deepen as a result of the internal struggles for power. Arce has no control over the organizations and movements affiliated with the MAS. This is not a good prerequisite for starting over.
Arce expects a difficult situation in the country when he takes office at the end of the year. The pandemic hit Bolivia hard and left many citizens in dire straits. He promised during the election campaign that he would put Bolivia back on track towards growth, as he did then. But the situation is completely different from that of the commodities boom that filled the Morales government’s treasury over the last decade. The current crisis demands unpopular decisions. This can generate tensions in the population and also in the party and weaken Arce’s position.
Institutions and the judiciary abused to pursue political interests: Evo Morales exiled in Argentina the morning after the elections
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Image: dpa
The social crisis poses an even greater challenge. After last year’s unrest, which was marked by repression and violence against MAS members and supporters, many are calling for retaliation. But that would mean that the MAS would fall back into old patterns. Furthermore, this would strain Arce’s relationship with the security forces, who had distanced themselves from Morales and therefore forced his resignation. For decades, the institutions and the judiciary in Bolivia have been abused to pursue political interests. Morales was a master at that. The confidence of Bolivians in the state and institutions has been destroyed. One choice is not enough to rebuild it.
