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reThe diseases that Vladimir Putin supposedly has range from cancer to Parkinson’s. In any case, his resignation is imminent. For several weeks, these reports have been haunted by international media and Russian social media. A Moscow expert is often quoted: Valery Solowej, former professor of the elite university foreign policy MGIMO.
Reports based on Solowej’s statements are rejected by the Kremlin as “nonsense”: Putin is healthy. And in fact, after months in which he governed the country via videoconference due to the crown pandemic, the president is gradually daring to make it public again.
For his age of just 68, he still makes a good impression on the viewer. Solowej, for his part, an alleged insider, has recently drawn attention with increasingly absurd statements. He claims to be a member of a “powerful and dangerous” secret organization.
Therefore, it is highly likely that Solowej’s remote diagnoses of the Russian president’s health are not true. But the viral success of these false reports shows that not only the West has grown weary of Putin, but also a large section of the Russians, beyond conspiracy theorist circles. In any case, they claim that the head of the Kremlin is nothing more than an invention of the Russian power elite, an artificial figure, alternately embodied by various doppelgangers.
The real Putin is in an ambivalent position. The presidential elections in March two years ago were a resounding success for him on paper: Putin received almost 77 percent of the vote. The constitutional reform, which was put to a vote in the midst of the summer pandemic, was approved with almost 78 percent of the vote. It allows Putin to stay in power virtually indefinitely, either as head of state or in another role.
In both the presidential election and the constitutional vote, accusations of manipulation were made sometimes massive, but the Kremlin never cares. On the other hand, Putin’s old image of an almost sacred statesman who first brought his country material prosperity and then a new global political dimension is gradually fading.
Putin’s great loss of trust in the Russians
After the annexation of Crimea six years ago, Russian confidence in Putin was still an incredible 89 percent. Three years ago, in polls by the independent research institute Levada, a remarkable 60 percent of the population still trusted Putin.
Today it is only 34 percent, and that is considered a good number today. In the first months of the pandemic, the aloof attitude of the Kremlin chief and the low level of state aid, especially for small business owners, made the Russians even less understanding. In July, the rating was still at an all-time low of 23 percent, but it has since rallied in light of Russia’s Covid no-locks nationwide strategy.
This shows that for Russians, Putin is still the most trusted politician in the country, but he is no longer an inviolable authority. Raising the retirement age two years ago, which many Russians perceived as a breach of trust, also assured this. Before that, Putin had spoken out against pension reform for years.
The big question now is what will happen in 2024, when Putin’s current term expires. The “grandfather,” as Russia’s increasingly dissatisfied young adults call the head of the Kremlin, could finally leave to clear the way for a transfer of power. Many Russians apparently want him to at least leave the Kremlin after his term expires.
In a poll conducted by the Levada polling institute, only 27 percent of respondents favored Putin remaining in the presidency, and another eleven percent would like to see him as prime minister.
In contrast, 32 percent of those surveyed would prefer Putin disappear from public life or simply retire. In any case, there is no longer a consensus on Putin’s continued rule in Russia. The latest bill in the Duma is fueling speculation about a future without Putin. This would allow Putin to remain politically and legally inviolable after a possible resignation as president.
This is a severe blow to Putin’s critics, who hope that his reign will be dealt with legally after his political mandate has expired. Lifting the immunity of a former president would imply obstacles so high that it would not be feasible in practice.
Consequently, if the law passes through the Duma as expected and enters into force, there are few cases in which immunity can be lifted: treason or some other serious crime. To do this, the Duma has to bring charges, the Federation Council and the Supreme Court have to support the House of Commons, while the Constitutional Court of Russia confirms the correctness of the procedure.
Does that mean Putin is immediately preparing for a future outside of the presidency? Such a transparent message would not fit Putin’s style. Usually he keeps the Russian elites and the people in the dark about his plans for as long as possible.
Just four months before the 2012 presidential elections, he announced that he wanted to rule Russia beyond 2011. Putin wants to surprise, like when he fired his government earlier this year. But it can be assumed that he has already developed a plan for the period after his current term.
