New blockade: economists draw terror scenarios – Coronavirus Vienna

The socially liberal Momentum Institute believes that around 130,000 jobs are at serious risk due to the upcoming crown lockdown. This applies in part to 380,000 more. Franz Schellhorn of Agenda Austria, on the other hand, sees “the forecast for an economy in contraction of 7 percent this year will not hold” if there is a new stagnation. It will go in the direction of minus 8.9 percent and high unemployment, ORF Ö1 said on radio.

The deciding factor will be how strict and how long the lockdown will be, the representative of the economically liberal think tank said on Saturday. For SMEs that are closed by the state, 75 percent of the previous year’s turnover should be replaced, as in Germany, and 70 percent for large companies, that would be an approach. “We will all have to give it back in the coming decades.” As long as there is no medication, there will always be setbacks, that is, valleys of waves. According to Schellhorn, 2021 will not be as good financially as previously expected or expected.

“A second lockdown will hit the job market hard,” economist Oliver Picek of the socially liberal Momentum Institute said in a broadcast on Saturday. It reaches approximately 130,000 endangered jobs based on the first shutdown and the now planned shutdown. Of course, jobs in the sectors to be shot are mainly affected: gastronomy and hotels, art and entertainment, and other services such as cosmetics and massages. “Other important sectors are indirectly affected, for example through consumer reluctance or declining orders. This indirectly endangers around 383,000 jobs, especially in commerce, industry and transport.” . The recent stagnation could “cost around 500,000 jobs if companies use the part-time instrument much less this time,” according to a Picek horror scenario.