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Neuwirth refers here to Israeli data. The small country in the Mediterranean Sea has already passed its second blockade, which began on September 18. “The target figure in Israel was less than 2,000 new infections per day, which corresponds to an incidence of 156 in 7 days.” At the crown traffic light, recalls the professor, an incidence of 100 in 7 days is the trigger for a traffic light to turn on. It has been red. “So 2000 new infections is not very ambitious. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has set herself the target of an incidence of 50 in 7 days, which would mean only 640 new positive tests per day for Austria. “
Compared to Puls4, Neuwirth projected the data for Austria until December 7, that is, until the day the strict lockdown of schools and retailers is expected to end. “As currently seen, we would still be around 2,700 new infections per day on December 7, which is significantly too high,” explains the expert. “If we want to reach the target values on December 7, we would have to do more, or we can only hope that the lock-in effect occurs sooner.” In any case, we must wait for next week’s data.
Israel has shown that after an exponential increase and a lockdown, it takes approximately 18 days before an equally exponential decrease can be recorded. In Austria initially there was a “soft” lockdown (the gastro had to close) since the beginning of November, but a “hard” lockdown has been in effect since November 17, schools and retailers are closed.
