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Montenegro’s head of state Milo Djukanovic is the oldest autocrat in Europe. He has ruled his country for more than three decades: he was a top official in late socialist Yugoslavia, then alternate prime minister and state president, interrupted only for brief periods in which he acted from the bottom. The Republic of Montenegro has never seen a democratic power shift in its history.
Probably not this Sunday either. President Djukanovic leaves elect a new parliament. However, as in all previous elections of the last three decades, his “Democratic Party of Socialists” (DPS) should once again be the strongest force this time.
But this is no ordinary choice for the smallest country in the Western Balkans, with just 620,000 inhabitants. It takes place at a key moment for Montenegro and is also of considerable regional and European political importance.
The Adriatic state has been a member of NATO for three years and is formally the most advanced candidate for EU membership in the region, but in practice it is one of the models of modern autocracies. Djukanovic was one of the first politicians in Europe to establish a formal democratic system, always led by himself and whose ruling party is practically impossible to vote.
This time, however, the parliamentary elections could be a turning point for Montenegro. For months, the country has been experiencing such massive protests against Djukanovic that it has not seen since it left the state association with Serbia and gained state independence in 2006. The trigger for this was a new denominational law late last year, which was it is supposed to put part of the property of the powerful Serbian Orthodox Church under state control.
With the law, Djukanovic not only wanted to obtain lucrative real estate, but above all he reignited the old dispute between Montenegrin “sovereignists” and pro-Serbian “trade unionists”: in Montenegro only about 45 percent of citizens declare themselves Montenegrin and 29 percent as Serbs. For the most part, it is the latter who have been taking to the streets for months in the so-called crusade processions, mobilized by the Serbian Orthodox Church and pro-Serb opposition politicians.
The largest opposition bloc has close ties to Moscow
It is primarily an artificial identity dispute, as many who call themselves Serbs no longer question the independence of Montenegro. The dispute, however, benefits the parties in mobilizing voters, not only Djukanovic and his DPS, but also the largest opposition bloc “For the future of Montenegro”.
It includes parties that have close ties to autocratic Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Russian President Vladimir Putin. A true rule of law and a European development of Montenegro is to be expected from these parties as little as from the DPS.
Djukanovic has already warned that the opposition could provoke riots during and after the elections. At least, major post-election protests are not unlikely, because in recent years the DPS has only been able to maintain its majorities with a sophisticated system of electoral manipulation. These include:
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Candidate bribery,
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Buying votes,
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Blackmailing voters
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Electoral tourism
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and falsification of electoral registers.
All of this has been meticulously documented by non-governmental organizations and investigative journalists in the country; so far it has had no consequences.
40,000 eligible voters who don’t even exist
This time, for example, there are about 40,000 more eligible voters on the electoral roll than officially adult citizens living in the country. It seems harmless enough that Djukanovic is not a candidate for the presidency, but he is still the main activist of his party and the namesake of the DPS electoral list. He is also president of the DPS, although according to the constitution he is not allowed to hold this position in conjunction with his presidential office.
The stakes are high for him. He, his family, and a group of party and business friends have practically divided the country among themselves. They own the most lucrative sections of the Adriatic coast, win the majority of public tenders, and secretly collect most of the foreign investment. For example, the latest corruption scandal in the country revolves around money laundering at a wind power project in Malta and Montenegro.
It is a system that the well-known Montenegrin mathematician and publicist Miodrag Perovic describes in the daily Vijesti: “The regime has become an oligarchy, the DPS a privileged caste that owns all the monopolies.”
