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men the war of words between Emmanuel Macron and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a ceasefire is looming. This is demonstrated by the statement published on Wednesday by the Elysee Palace after a phone call between the French and Turkish presidents. Macron promises to enter into a “regular dialogue” with Erdogan and intensify the exchange of ministers. He explicitly praised Greece and Turkey for their willingness to talk about their differences. The dialogue must be conducted with “honesty” and lead to a lasting pacification, they say.
Macron Erdogan had repeatedly denied honesty (“la bonne foi”) in recent weeks. At the Elysee Palace, the Turkish president is accused of a neo-Ottoman power struggle against which the EU must prevail. It is difficult for the EU to adopt a containment policy towards Turkey, says Bruno Tertrais of the Fondation pour la recherche stratégique. “Some EU partners fear that Erdogan will turn on the tap of migratory flows, others like Italy remain in the legitimist camp in Libya,” said Tertrais. NATO wants to prevent Turkey from completely deviating and switching to Russia. Therefore, France is in a rather lonely position in its policy towards Turkey.
Does Erdogan’s behavior resemble Putin’s?
He was quite reluctant to accept in Paris to support the mediation efforts of the German Presidency of the Council of the EU in the Eastern Mediterranean. Macron recently emphasized at the meeting of the seven Mediterranean EU countries in Corsica that Turkey “was no longer a partner.” “President Erdogan reminds me of President Putin, he challenges the EU and puts it to the test”, analyzes Thierry de Montbrial, who heads the think tank Institut français des Relations internationales and advises Macron. From Montbrial’s point of view, Erdogan mainly understands the language of power. It is up to the EU to enforce international law and not accept Turkey’s violations of maritime sovereignty.
That is also in the statement after the phone call with Erdogan: “Turkey is called to respect the sovereignty of the EU member states and international law.” Macron warned that Turkey must comply with the arms embargo that the United Nations had decided on Libya. . “I am surprised that Germany, whose foreign policy is based on international law, simply accepts the violations of President Erdogan,” Montbrial said. He wondered if it was because of the four million Turks in Germany that Berlin was considering. The reading that the German government is too compliant with Ankara has prevailed in Paris since the negotiations on the EU refugee agreement with Turkey.
Paris is a lawyer with commercial interests
One hundred years after the signing of the Treaty of Sèvres, which sealed the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in World War I, the impression prevails in the French capital that the cards are being shuffled in the Mediterranean region. France has not only completely abandoned the idea of an EU membership prospect for Turkey. From Macron’s point of view, the “sick of the Bosphorus” also endangers the cohesion of NATO. His “brain-dead” comment on the alliance was due to Turkey, according to Paris. At the Elysee Palace, you never tire of listing the violations of Erdogan’s solidarity alliance, from the purchase of the Russian S400 missiles to the unauthorized intervention in Syria after the US withdrawal to the incident in the Mediterranean with the frigate “Courbet” , supposedly a Protect the ship from arms smugglers.
Macron’s advisers note that despite detente with Greece, Turkish drillships were sailing off the coast of Cyprus. It is essential for the stability of the region that the interests of Cyprus are also defended as a partner of the EU. The attempt to link the debate on sanctions on Belarus with that on Turkey is rejected, but Cyprus now needs a strong gesture of solidarity from the EU.
The role of lawyer for Greece and Cyprus cleverly combines France with commercial interests. Defense Minister Florence Parly called it “excellent news” that the Greek government has confirmed the purchase of 18 Rafale fighter jets despite chronic financial problems. The billion dollar deal will be signed before the end of the year. Greece would thus become the first European buyer of the French fighter. Only six of them should be new productions. Twelve aircraft are “used” from Athens by the French Air Force.
Erdogan’s “long arm”
In this way, Greece is supposed to receive the fighter jets from 2021, which generates discontent in French defense circles, as bottlenecks are feared for the national air force. The Dassault arms company, which produces the Rafale fighter jets, is fueling suspicions in Turkey through the newspaper “Le Figaro”, which is part of the group.
In his Mediterranean politics, Macron is making use of growing reservations about Erdogan’s “long arm” in France. More recently, in his speech at Mulhouse in Alsace, he criticized attempts at political interference by immigrants loyal to the AKP. France also wants to abolish the system that allows Turkey to send teachers unchecked to French schools for language courses. Wandering preachers who are sent directly from Turkey should no longer be able to preach in French mosques. The Turkish government protested against these advertisements.
