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According to polls in recent weeks, Sunday’s Vienna elections will bring a victory for the SPÖ. The open question is what coalition options will result from this. For the SPÖ, a coalition with the Neos could be possible in addition to the turquoise or green variants.
For the SPÖ, the latest polls from the GMO and Unique Research institutes show values of 42 percent each, after a steady upward trend since spring. According to polls, second place will go to ÖVP, which after good values in the spring (22 to 24 percent) in polls recently fell to around 19 percent. The Greens are expected to lag behind, although the latest GMO and Unique Research polls show slightly different values for the green party, namely 17 and 15 percent respectively. The FPÖ has always been around ten percent in the polls since the spring, the Neos commuting between six and seven percent. Strache’s team will have to worry about going to state parliament with values between 4 and 5 percent. Michael Ludwig will be able to choose his partner.
Red-green variant
Well-rehearsed cooperation speaks in favor of a continuation of red-green, in addition to the arguments sparked by the electoral campaign of recent months. Respectful coexistence to pursue jointly defined goals was not such a big problem, at least until recently. And when it comes to ideologies and political goals, the Greens are certainly the closest to the SPÖ.
Red-turquoise variant
A coalition with the ÖVP would also be possible; The numerous joint appearances by Ludwig and Walter Ruck, president of the Vienna Chamber of Commerce and president of the Vienna Economic Association, have made this clear in recent months. Many comrades would also prefer the transport department in the hands of the ÖVP rather than green. In addition, the second place of the ÖVP is expected. The only problem is that the Vienna ÖVP still consists of two camps: the “old” bourgeois blacks who are oriented towards social cooperation, who lack the Christian social component in Sebastian Kurz – and the Turquoises who have moved further to the right. and happily put marketing and tag over content. Apart from that, the relationship between Michael Ludwig and Gernot Blümel is not as characterized by mutual respect as that of Walter Ruck.
And for turquoise, red-green in Vienna is simply a better enemy than red-turquoise. For Sebastian Kurz it would be strategically unfavorable if he suddenly had his own people in the Vienna city government and thus lost an important grater. The Greens are challenging enough in this regard.
Rotten rose
In addition to the continuation of the red-green coalition and possible cooperation with the Turks, a coalition with the Neos could now also work arithmetically. The SPÖ and Neos together would not have an absolute majority of votes. However, since Viennese voting rights still favor large parties in the distribution of seats, a corresponding majority of seats seems likely. Especially if Strache’s team doesn’t pass the 5 percent hurdle.
A scenario that would be particularly bad for the Greens’ negotiating position. After all, with a small partner, the SPÖ can overcome its own problems much better in a coalition. Apart from that, with a red and pink variant, Michael Ludwig would have the opportunity to go completely new ways and thus also establish new political accents. Most importantly, the Neos would do (almost) anything to be allowed to rule in Vienna.
The absolute
And then there is the absolute majority variant of the SPÖ. 43 to 44 percent could be enough for this. However, this vote is carried out for the first time with the new electoral law. And that could cost the SPÖ two terms with the same percentage. The SPÖ, of course, would be happy with an absolute: ten years after losing it. Because then I could change and do what I want again. But ultimately, it is not only about the success of the SPÖ, but also about the performance of the other small parts; here too, crossing the 5 percent hurdle for the HC Strache team plays an important role. Because according to surveys, this is not guaranteed. Heinz-Christian Strache had weakened at the end of the election campaign. There is a risk that many of his constituents will stay home, it is said.
The situation of the other
According to the polls, the FPÖ, in turn, has to have a minimum of around 20 percentage points. Hofer referred to the “paradox” that the election result for the FPÖ does not really have the first priority, but rather the goal of keeping Strache out of the municipal council, which also explains the emergence of new accusations. Because if Strache succeeds in building a “pedestal” in Vienna, he will continue to try to harm his former party, says political adviser Thomas Hofer.
As “Corona Manager”, ÖVP fell somewhat behind during the summer after some good initial results. The fact that the ÖVP lead candidate, Gernot Blümel, had lost something in his personality values on the Somme, can also be attributed to mistakes such as his appearance on the U-Committee with numerous memory gaps and the saying that no had a laptop. “That didn’t do him any good as a person,” says pollster Peter Hajek (Public Opinion Strategies / Unique Research).
Hofer sees the potential of the Greens somewhat limited in the Vienna elections. This is due, on the one hand, to the lack of charisma of the main candidate Birgit Hebein, on the other hand, to the problems of the federal government: the keyword Moria refugee camp. Supporting the ÖVP’s hard line on this issue is difficult for some ecological target groups, especially in Vienna, even if Hebein objected. The Greens could rate any result that goes against the 15 percent as a success. However, if the city party gets just slightly beyond its low 2015 result (11.84 percent), discussions could continue, also at the federal level, experts say.
Also in the case of Wiener Neos, Thomas Hofer identifies the top candidate Christoph Wiederkehr – who did not “make a bad appearance” in the electoral campaign – the problem of insufficient charisma and, above all, the lack of awareness in the city. It might help the Neos that the ÖVP “overreacted” with its tough stance on the Moria issue, says the political adviser. This could lead some ÖVP voters into liberal competition, especially in western Vienna. (rös / apa)
