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After the election, the SPÖ will probably be able to choose between three partners.
Vienna Have the Viennese elections already taken place? According to the current AUSTRIA poll (Research Affairs, 400 online interviews, September 28-30, SB 5% max), Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) can no longer claim victory. 42% of Viennese say they would vote for red today.
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ÖVP as the winner? Everything seems to be clear also in the places behind it: the ÖVP, with Finance Minister Gernot Blümel at the head, can count on 20% of the votes and would therefore double its participation compared to the 2015 election. The Greens would be disappointing at 13%, but they would still be a percentage point better than in the last election.
Blue shock? FPÖ Research Affairs predicts the big drop, which at 10% would not even reach a third of its 2015 result. It would also lose many votes to Strache’s team, which would reach city hall with 6%.
Rot-Pink? The Neos would reach 7%, and they would also be in the coalition game: SPÖ-Neos would be mathematically possible today.
Satisfaction? The good prospects for the SPÖ are corroborated with secondary questions: 73% are satisfied with Ludwig as mayor (comparatively low 53% with the red-green coalition). A proud 50% majority would directly elect Ludwig as mayor. 63% of Viennese are satisfied with the crown policy of the city government (17% very, 46% more likely).
Determination? According to the survey, the mood has already hardened a week before the elections. 61% are already completely sure who they will choose. Together with those who are not yet 100% determined but have a firm trend, it is 86%. Only 7% still fluctuate between two parties, 8% still have no idea who they are voting for.
Confederation: ÖVP remains clear No. 1
Little change in the Sunday question at the national level compared to the previous week (Research topics, 1,000 online interviews, September 28-30, maximum fluctuation range 2.3%). Only one percentage point went from the FPÖ to Strache’s team. The undisputed first place is the ÖVP with 41%, followed by the SPÖ with 20%. With 12%, the Greens would once again be the only third against the FPÖ, which falls to 11%. The HC Strache team, which would be represented with 5% in the next National Council, will benefit from this.
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